Bangladesh on the Brink, again?

Escalating Violence and the Risk of Civil War

Bangladesh is experiencing an alarming deterioration in security, raising concerns about the country’s stability and the potential for civil war. The ongoing violence, political unrest, and human rights violations have created a volatile environment that threatens to plunge the nation into deeper crisis.

Political Upheaval and Power Struggles

The removal of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in August 2024, following mass protests led by students and opposition groups, has left a significant power vacuum. In her place, an interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus has attempted to implement reforms. However, the transition has been anything but smooth. Political factions remain deeply divided, and retributive actions against supporters of the previous regime have fueled further discord.

Bangladesh has long suffered from political instability, with cycles of violence between the ruling Awami League and its opposition, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), alongside Islamist elements. The abrupt power shift has led to a resurgence of political violence, with clashes erupting between different factions, law enforcement, and even civilians. The situation is particularly precarious in urban centers like Dhaka and Chittagong, where protests have turned violent, and security forces have cracked down with force.

Rising Civil Unrest and Deadly Clashes

Recent events highlight the escalating violence. On February 24, 2025, a deadly confrontation broke out in Cox’s Bazar when approximately 200 residents attacked an air force base. The altercation, which began as a minor dispute, escalated into a full-scale clash, prompting security forces to fire blank rounds to disperse the crowd. One person was killed, and several others were injured. The incident underscores the growing tension between civilians and military forces, raising concerns about the government’s ability to maintain order.

Reports from Dhaka and other major cities indicate a worrying pattern of increased armed confrontations. Student-led protests, originally aimed at securing democratic reforms, have transformed into violent showdowns between demonstrators and state security personnel. The situation has been exacerbated by the heavy-handed approach of law enforcement, leading to accusations of extrajudicial killings and disappearances.

Human Rights Violations and Repression

The security crackdown has drawn sharp criticism from international human rights organizations. Human Rights Watch (HRW) has documented a pattern of enforced disappearances, torture, and unlawful detentions by Bangladeshi security forces. Since 2009, there have been over 600 reported enforced disappearances, with nearly 100 individuals still missing.

These human rights abuses have fueled further public outrage, pushing Bangladesh closer to widespread revolt. Families of victims, along with political activists, have demanded accountability, but the government has largely dismissed these allegations. The repression has also targeted journalists and opposition voices, with media outlets facing censorship and threats for reporting on state violence.

Risk of Civil War

The combination of political turmoil, widespread violence, and unchecked human rights abuses has led analysts to warn of a possible civil war. The Early Warning Project, which tracks risks of mass killings worldwide, estimates a 4.9% chance of large-scale violence occurring in Bangladesh in 2024-2025. While this percentage may seem small, it is significant enough to warrant international attention.

A potential civil war in Bangladesh would have devastating consequences, not only for the country itself but for the broader South Asian region. The economy, already weakened by political instability, could collapse further, leading to mass displacement and a refugee crisis. The security vacuum could also allow extremist groups to gain a foothold, further destabilizing the region.

Rohingya Crisis and Regional Implications

Another factor complicating Bangladesh’s security situation is the ongoing Rohingya crisis. The country currently hosts nearly one million Rohingya refugees in camps in Cox’s Bazar. Reports indicate that many Rohingya are being drawn into armed conflicts in Myanmar, raising fears of spillover violence into Bangladesh.

If internal instability worsens, Bangladesh may no longer be able to manage the refugee population, leading to humanitarian and security challenges. Regional powers, including India and China, have been monitoring the situation closely, as further unrest could trigger cross-border tensions and require international intervention.

Avoiding Civil War

Despite the grim outlook, Bangladesh still has a chance to avoid full-scale civil war. The interim government must take immediate steps to de-escalate tensions, including engaging in dialogue with opposition groups and addressing human rights violations. Restoring public trust in institutions and ensuring free and fair elections could help stabilize the situation.

International actors, including the United Nations and regional allies, must also play a role in mediating tensions. Pressuring the Bangladeshi government to uphold human rights and providing diplomatic assistance to facilitate reconciliation efforts could be key in preventing further escalation.

Bangladesh stands at a crossroads. The coming months will determine whether it spirals into deeper chaos or finds a path toward stability. The world is watching closely, and the stakes could not be higher.