Less than ninety minutes before Donald Trump’s 8 p.m. deadline expired, the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire. Both governments declared victory. Oil fell sixteen percent. Crowds poured into the streets of Tehran and Baghdad. And within hours: Iran launched missiles and drones at Kuwait, the UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, in retaliation for strikes on the Lavan Island oil refinery that landed on the morning of April 8. Israel launched what its military called the largest coordinated strike of the war, hitting over 100 Hezbollah targets across Beirut, southern Lebanon, and the Bekaa Valley in ten minutes. Eight people were killed at a cafe in Sidon where men had been playing cards and smoking narguileh. Ten died at a cemetery in Shmestar. Pakistan’s Prime Minister had announced that the ceasefire applied “everywhere, including Lebanon.” Israel’s Prime Minister disagreed within hours and his air force underscored the point. The Strait of Hormuz is technically open. Two vessels have transited. Eight hundred remain trapped. Day 40.
THE CEASEFIRE: HOW IT HAPPENED
The announcement came at 6:32 p.m. Eastern time on April 7, posted by Trump to Truth Social as a “double-sided CEASEFIRE.” He said the United States had “already met and exceeded all military objectives” and was “very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning Longterm PEACE with Iran.” He added that Iran had submitted a “workable” 10-point proposal in which “points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran.” He said he was acting on conversations with Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who had called that morning urging a deadline extension and simultaneously asked Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as a goodwill gesture. Sharif, in a post on X, described both parties as having displayed “remarkable wisdom.”
Iran’s Supreme National Security Council issued its formal acceptance in the early hours of April 8 local time. The statement carried a sentence that no White House spokesperson repeated back to reporters: “It is emphasized that this does not signify the termination of the war. Our hands remain upon the trigger, and should the slightest error be committed by the enemy, it shall be met with full force.” Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz would be possible for two weeks “via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations.” He thanked Shehbaz Sharif directly. He did not thank Trump.
The final hours before the announcement had carried contradictory signals. The Wall Street Journal reported Iran had cut off direct diplomacy. The New York Times reported indirect talks had also stopped. CNN’s sources said the U.S. was still eager for a deal and the situation remained “fluid.” Administration officials told the network that Trump’s escalatory language, including the Truth Social post that “a whole civilization will die tonight,” was designed to put “maximum pressure” on Tehran rather than signal actual intent. Whether Tehran read it that way is not recorded.
The deal pivoted on Pakistan. General Asim Munir spent the overnight hours of April 5-6 shuttling between Witkoff, Vance, and Araghchi. The framework that circulated before the ceasefire, called the Islamabad Accord, had been built by Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey. Iran rejected the temporary ceasefire framing it contained, calling it “detached from the realities on the ground,” and substituted its own 10-point counter-proposal. That counter-proposal, which Tehran delivered through Pakistani intermediaries, became the document Trump called workable. The delegations of both countries are invited to Islamabad for talks on Friday, April 10. U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, and Vice President Vance are expected to attend.
WHAT IRAN CLAIMS IT WON
The Iranian leadership has told its public this ended on Iran’s terms. The 10-point plan Tehran submitted includes: full sanctions relief, a war-loss fund for reconstruction, a potential withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Gulf, recognition of Iran’s right to enrich uranium in exchange for a pledge not to build a nuclear weapon, and the cessation of Israeli attacks in Lebanon and Gaza. Iran describes the ceasefire agreement as acceptance of “the general framework” of its proposal, a framing Tehran will carry into the Islamabad talks as a baseline, not a starting offer.
Al Jazeera’s correspondent in Tehran reported a “feeling of pride among the leaders” who are publicly telling the population the conflict ends on Iranian terms.
Trump posted his own interpretation hours after the announcement. “The United States will, working with Iran, dig up and remove all of the deeply buried Nuclear Dust,” he wrote on Truth Social, referring to the remnants of Iran’s nuclear stockpile destroyed in the June 2025 strikes. “There will be no enrichment of uranium.” He also announced 50 percent tariffs, “effective immediately,” on any country supplying military weapons to Iran. And he declared that Iran had undergone “regime change,” that the United States would be discussing tariff and sanctions relief with Tehran, and described the coming weeks as the potential start of “the Golden Age of the Middle East.” Iran’s Supreme National Security Council had simultaneously stated that their hands remained on the trigger. The two readings of the same agreement do not obviously describe the same agreement.
Trump also told AFP on April 8 that he believed China had played a role in pushing Iran to negotiate. “I hear yes,” he said when asked whether Beijing was involved.
THE STRAIT: OPEN ON PAPER
Two vessels have passed through the Strait of Hormuz since the ceasefire was announced. A Greek-owned bulk carrier named NJ Earth crossed at 8:44 a.m. UTC on April 8. A Liberia-flagged bulk carrier, the Daytona Beach, passed through approximately two hours earlier. Both took the route past Iran’s Larak Island, which Lloyd’s List Intelligence has previously identified as the IRGC checkpoint controlling access to the strait. MarineTraffic confirmed both transits. It noted that 426 tankers, 34 liquefied petroleum gas carriers, and 19 liquefied natural gas vessels remain trapped in the Gulf, among more than 800 vessels total waiting for the passage to normalize.
Maersk said the ceasefire “may create transit opportunities” but does not yet provide “full maritime certainty” and has not changed its service plans. Shipping analyst Lars Jensen wrote on LinkedIn that, hours after the ceasefire announcement, there had been “not yet any change in the pattern of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.” Iran and Oman are reportedly planning to charge transit fees for ships using the strait during the ceasefire period. The legal basis for those fees is contested. The U.S. has not publicly addressed them.
Oil fell sharply. Brent crude dropped approximately 14 percent to around $91-94 a barrel. WTI fell roughly 16 percent, to approximately $94-95. Both benchmarks closed the day well above their pre-war levels, when Brent was trading near $72. The U.S. Energy Information Administration, whose administrator told reporters the world had “never before seen the strait close” and had “never seen it reopen,” cautioned that Middle East oil production would not return close to pre-conflict levels until late 2026 regardless of what the next two weeks produce. The 40-day closure has been described by the IEA as the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. Roughly 12 to 15 million barrels per day have been choked off since early March.
The gap between the financial market’s reaction and the physical shipping industry’s caution tells the relevant story. Futures traders priced in optimism. The carriers that operate the tankers have not yet moved.
THE GULF: ATTACKS AFTER THE CEASEFIRE
Iran struck the Lavan Island oil refinery on the morning of April 8. The National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company confirmed the attack, calling it a “cowardly” strike at 10 a.m. local time. Iranian state television subsequently confirmed that the missile and drone attacks on Gulf states later in the day were carried out in direct response to the Lavan Island bombing.
The UAE’s Ministry of Defence confirmed its air defences were “actively engaging” incoming ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and unmanned aerial vehicles from Iran. Explosions were heard across Abu Dhabi and Dubai. A fire broke out at Abu Dhabi’s Habshan gas processing facility. Kuwait’s army confirmed interceptions of hostile missiles and drones, reporting more than two dozen drones launched since 8 a.m. Kuwait International Airport remains closed to commercial traffic after multiple previous drone strikes. In Bahrain, a fire broke out at a facility on Sitra Island hosting the country’s principal energy infrastructure. Two citizens were injured by shrapnel from an Iranian drone interception in the Sitra area. Qatar’s Defense Ministry confirmed a successful interception of an Iranian missile. Saudi Arabia’s Civil Defense organization issued “potential danger” warnings across the country, including Riyadh.
The cumulative toll of Iran’s regional campaign since February 28 puts these strikes in context. According to ACLED, the U.S. and Israel have launched more than 3,000 strikes on Iran across the 40 days of war. Iran has retaliated with 1,511 strikes against targets in Israel and neighboring Gulf countries. By late March, UAE and Kuwait had each spent roughly 75 percent of their Patriot missile interceptor stocks. Bahrain’s stocks were estimated at 87 percent depleted, according to the Jewish Institute for National Security of America. Iran’s ambassador to Pakistan warned Gulf states on Tuesday that “sooner or later America will leave this region by accepting defeat, and you will stay.” The attacks on April 8 followed within hours.
LEBANON: THE CEASEFIRE THAT DID NOT ARRIVE
Just before 3 a.m. on April 8, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced that the ceasefire applied “everywhere, immediately, including Lebanon.” In camps on Beirut’s waterfront, families sleeping in tents began folding blankets and loading cars. Some drove south. Fadi Zaydan, 35, displaced from Nabatieh, had already begun preparing to take his parents home when Netanyahu’s office issued its response. “The two-week ceasefire does not include Lebanon,” the statement said. The car that had been loaded was unloaded. “But we’ll be targeted if we go home,” Zaydan told the AP.
Israel then conducted what its military described as the largest coordinated strike of the current war: over 100 Hezbollah command centers and military sites struck in ten minutes across Beirut, the Bekaa Valley, and southern Lebanon. Central Beirut neighborhoods that had rarely been hit before took direct strikes. Barbour, Corniche Al Mazraa, Ain Al Mreisseh, and Burj Abi Haidar were all struck without warning. Lebanon’s Health Ministry issued an emergency call for Beirut roads to be cleared for ambulances.
In Sidon, an Israeli missile hit a car parked outside the Kalaa cafe. A second crushed the building itself. Eight people were killed and 28 wounded. An employee named Loys, who survived, sat in a chair amid the debris holding his head in his hands. He told reporters it had been a normal night, people playing cards and smoking narguileh. Israel did not specify the target.
At a cemetery in the Bekaa Valley village of Shmestar, a strike killed at least ten people and injured four others. Two more were killed in a strike on a car in Ras el-Ayn.
Iran’s initial 10-point ceasefire proposal explicitly included the cessation of Israeli attacks in Lebanon. Hezbollah legislator Ibrahim Al-Moussawi stated: “The agreement includes Lebanon, according to its terms, and Iran insisted on this inclusion.” France, Pakistan, and Egypt, all of which helped mediate the deal, publicly asserted Lebanon’s inclusion. The Lebanese government told AFP it had “not been informed” of Lebanon’s exclusion. Spain summoned the Israeli chargé d’affaires in Madrid to protest the detention of a Spanish soldier from the UN Interim Force in Lebanon. The IDF issued new evacuation orders for Tyre and the surrounding area, for an area extending more than 40 kilometers inside Lebanon, and stated plainly: “The battle in Lebanon is ongoing.”
Hezbollah has not claimed operations since 1 a.m. on April 8. It has asked displaced civilians not to return south “before the official final announcement of a ceasefire in Lebanon.” That announcement has not come.
Lebanon’s Prime Minister called on the country’s allies to intervene and stop the Israeli attacks. More than 1,500 people have been killed in Lebanon since Israel opened its Lebanon front on March 2. Over 1.2 million have been displaced.
ISLAMABAD, FRIDAY
The Islamabad talks on April 10 will be the first formal face-to-face engagement between U.S. and Iranian delegations since the war began on February 28. The Iranian side will arrive carrying a 10-point proposal its government has publicly described as the basis on which the ceasefire was accepted, not a document still under negotiation. The U.S. side, per Trump’s Truth Social posts, arrives having already stated there will be no uranium enrichment and having described Iran as undergoing regime change. Both cannot be true simultaneously. One of them will be tested in Islamabad.
The two weeks are not a peace. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said so in its own acceptance statement. The Gulf states now absorbing post-ceasefire missile fire will draw their own conclusions. The displaced families outside Nabatieh waiting for a ceasefire that covers Lebanon will draw theirs.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is traveling to the Gulf on April 8 to meet with allied leaders in support of the ceasefire. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte is meeting Trump in Washington, with Iran and Ukraine both on the agenda. The French hostages Cécile Kohler and Jacques Paris, freed after three and a half years in Iranian detention, appeared at the Élysée Palace on April 8. They said very little. There was not much to add.
Trump Announces “Double-Sided CEASEFIRE” — April 7, 6:32 p.m. ET, Truth Social; declared U.S. had “met and exceeded all military objectives”; Iran’s 10-point proposal described as “workable”; ceasefire contingent on complete, immediate, and safe opening of Strait of Hormuz; agreement reached less than 90 minutes before the 8 p.m. deadline for infrastructure destruction.
Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Accepts — April 8, local time; formal statement via Iranian foreign minister; accepted “general framework” of ceasefire; stated explicitly: “This does not signify the termination of the war. Our hands remain upon the trigger.”
Pakistan Brokered the Deal — PM Shehbaz Sharif urged Trump to extend deadline and asked Iran to reopen Hormuz; Trump credited “conversations” with Sharif and Gen. Asim Munir; Islamabad talks set for Friday, April 10; Witkoff, Kushner, and Vance expected to attend alongside Iranian delegation.
Iran’s 10-Point Plan: What Tehran Says It Won — full sanctions relief; war-loss fund for reconstruction; potential U.S. troop withdrawal from Gulf; recognition of Iran’s right to enrich uranium in exchange for a pledge not to build nuclear weapons; cessation of Israeli attacks in Lebanon; Iran describes the ceasefire as acceptance of “the general framework” of its proposal.
Trump’s Contradictions — Post-ceasefire Truth Social posts stated: “There will be no enrichment of uranium”; 50 percent tariffs “effective immediately” on any country supplying military weapons to Iran; described Iran as having undergone “regime change”; called coming period potential “Golden Age of the Middle East”; pledged U.S. assistance with Hormuz traffic buildup.
Trump: China Helped Bring Iran to Talks — Told AFP on April 8 he believed China played a role in pushing Tehran to negotiate; “I hear yes” when asked whether Beijing was involved; no Chinese official comment confirmed.
Hormuz: Two Vessels Through, 800+ Still Trapped — NJ Earth (Greek bulk carrier) and Daytona Beach (Liberia-flagged bulk carrier) transited via IRGC Larak Island checkpoint; MarineTraffic confirms 426 tankers, 34 LPG, 19 LNG carriers remain in Gulf; Maersk has not changed service plans; Iran and Oman reportedly plan to charge transit fees; legal basis contested.
Oil Falls 14–16 Percent — Brent crude dropped to approximately $91–94/barrel; WTI to approximately $94–95; both remain well above pre-war levels ($67–72 on February 27); IEA administrator said flows will not return close to pre-conflict levels until late 2026; described closure as largest supply disruption in history of global oil market.
Lavan Island Oil Refinery Struck — April 8, 10 a.m. local time; confirmed by National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company; Iranian state television confirmed subsequent Gulf attacks were carried out in direct retaliation.
UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar Under Iranian Fire After Ceasefire — UAE: air defenses intercepting ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and UAVs; explosions in Abu Dhabi and Dubai; fire at Habshan gas processing facility; Bahrain: fire at Sitra energy infrastructure, 2 citizens injured by drone shrapnel; Kuwait: 24+ drones since 8 a.m., airport still closed; Qatar: missile intercepted, 4 injured from debris; Saudi Arabia: civil defense “potential danger” warnings across country including Riyadh.
ACLED Cumulative Toll — U.S. and Israel have launched over 3,000 strikes on Iran since February 28; Iran has retaliated with 1,511 strikes against Israel and Gulf neighbors; UAE and Kuwait estimated to have spent 75 percent of Patriot interceptor stocks by late March; Bahrain estimated at 87 percent depleted.
Lebanon Excluded by Israel — Netanyahu’s office: “The two-week ceasefire does not include Lebanon”; statement issued in English only, not Hebrew; Pakistan, France, Egypt, and Iran all assert Lebanon is included; Lebanese government told AFP it had “not been informed” of exclusion.
Israel Launches Largest Strike Wave of the War on Lebanon — IDF: over 100 Hezbollah targets struck in 10 minutes across Beirut, Bekaa Valley, and southern Lebanon; neighborhoods struck in central Beirut without prior warning: Barbour, Corniche Al Mazraa, Ain Al Mreisseh, Burj Abi Haidar; Lebanon’s Health Ministry issued emergency ambulance clearance order.
Sidon Cafe Strike: 8 Killed, 28 Wounded — Israeli missile struck car parked outside Kalaa cafe, second missile destroyed the building; customers had been playing cards; survivor Loys described a normal night; Israel did not specify the target.
Shmestar Cemetery Strike: 10 Killed — Bekaa Valley village; at least 4 others injured; two more killed in separate car strike in Ras el-Ayn.
IDF Evacuation Orders Extended — Tyre, Shabriha, Al-Abbasiya area; order covers area more than 40 kilometers inside Lebanon; stated: “The battle in Lebanon is ongoing”; 1,500+ killed in Lebanon since March 2, 1.2 million displaced.
Displaced Lebanese Turned Back — Families who had begun returning south after Pakistan’s ceasefire announcement stopped after Netanyahu’s statement; Fadi Zaydan, 35, displaced from Nabatieh: “We’ll be targeted if we go home.”
Hezbollah Has Not Claimed Operations Since 1 a.m. April 8 — Hezbollah legislator Al-Moussawi: “The agreement includes Lebanon, according to its terms, and Iran insisted on this inclusion”; Hezbollah urging civilians not to return south “before the official final announcement of a ceasefire in Lebanon.”
Pentagon: “Has Done Its Part” — Defense Secretary Hegseth at morning briefing; said the Pentagon “has done its part for now” but remains “vigilant and ready.”
French Hostages Kohler and Paris at Élysée Palace — April 8; appeared publicly after three and a half years in Iranian detention; freed in the 24-hour window covered in yesterday’s daily; received by President Macron.
Keir Starmer Traveling to Gulf — April 8; meeting allied leaders to support ceasefire framework.
NATO Chief Rutte Meeting Trump — Washington, April 8; Iran and Ukraine on agenda per NATO official.
Iran-Backed Militia Frees American Journalist — April 7; freed in prisoner exchange with Iraqi government; journalist had been kidnapped the previous month.
North Korea: Short-Range Ballistic Missiles — April 8; second consecutive day of launches toward the East Sea; Seoul’s military confirmed.
Asian and U.S. Markets Surge — South Korean stocks up approximately 7 percent; Wall Street futures jumped on ceasefire announcement; IEA cautions physical oil market remains under strain regardless of futures movement.