China’s Emerging Concerns Over Pakistan’s Geopolitical Shifts

China-centric perspective

For decades, China and Pakistan have upheld a strategic partnership characterized by deep military, economic, and diplomatic cooperation. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship project of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), symbolizes this enduring relationship. However, recent developments in Pakistan’s geopolitical alignments raise critical concerns in Beijing. As Pakistan increasingly engages with the United States and struggles with internal instability, China faces significant challenges in maintaining its influence and securing its economic interests in the region.

Pakistan’s Balancing Act: A Question of Loyalty?

China has historically viewed Pakistan as a trustworthy strategic partner and a critical node in its regional policy. However, Islamabad’s recent diplomatic maneuvers suggest a growing inclination toward the United States, raising doubts about its long-term reliability.

• US Military and Financial Support: The Biden administration requested $101 million in aid to Pakistan in 2025, targeting counterterrorism efforts and economic stabilization. In addition, Pakistan has strengthened military cooperation with the U.S., participating in joint exercises and security dialogues.

• Statements from US Officials: In July 2024, Donald Lu, Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia, remarked that "China is the past; the U.S. is Pakistan’s future", signaling Washington’s intent to reclaim its strategic foothold in South Asia.

• Pakistan’s Tactical Shift: Islamabad’s decision to revive engagement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Western financial institutions over debt restructuring indicates a shift away from dependence on Chinese loans.

From China’s perspective, these developments suggest an attempt by Pakistan to hedge its bets, seeking Western financial support while still benefiting from Chinese investments. This balancing act raises concerns over Pakistan’s reliability as a long-term ally, particularly in the context of heightened U.S.-China tensions.

CPEC Under Threat: Economic Stagnation and Unmet Expectations

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) was envisioned as a transformative initiative, positioning Pakistan as an economic hub while deepening Sino-Pakistani cooperation. However, persistent mismanagement, corruption, and financial instability have hindered its success.

Delayed and Stalled Projects

• The Gwadar Port, once promoted as “Pakistan’s Dubai,” remains underdeveloped, plagued by protests, militant attacks, and infrastructure bottlenecks.

• The ML-1 railway project, connecting Karachi and Peshawar, has stalled due to funding disputes and Pakistan’s inability to meet Chinese financial conditions.

• Energy projects under CPEC have increased Pakistan’s debt burden, leading to payment delays to Chinese firms and frequent power shortages despite heavy investments.

Pakistan’s Debt Crisis and China’s Skepticism

China now questions Pakistan’s financial credibility after repeated loan deferment requests. In 2024, Pakistan owed over 72% of its bilateral external debt to China, yet struggled to fulfill financial obligations.

The IMF’s insistence on loan transparency has further complicated matters. China suspects that Pakistan is leveraging Western financial institutions to renegotiate its debt obligations, potentially undermining Beijing’s influence over Islamabad’s economic policies.

Security Concerns: Rising Threats to Chinese Nationals

One of China’s gravest concerns is the increasing violence against its nationals and investments in Pakistan. Since 2016, over 60 Chinese workers have been killed or injured in targeted attacks, largely attributed to the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).

Escalating Security Threats

• October 2024: A suicide bombing in Karachi killed two Chinese engineers working on a CPEC power plant.

• March 2025: A BLA-orchestrated train hijacking in Balochistan resulted in 21 state reported civilian deaths and created a hostage crisis.

• Repeated Targeting of Gwadar Port: Militants continue to sabotage CPEC projects and intimidate Chinese investors.

China has demanded increased security guarantees, yet Pakistan’s efforts, including Operation Azm-e-Istehkam, have yielded limited results. As a result, Beijing is now considering deploying Chinese private security firms—a move that directly challenges Pakistan’s sovereignty and reflects China’s diminishing trust in Islamabad’s ability to protect its interests.

Geopolitical Implications: The U.S.-India Factor

Pakistan’s warming relations with Washington coincide with China’s growing tensions with India and the United States. While Pakistan was once a dependable counterweight against India, its shifting priorities have raised concerns in Beijing.

Pakistan’s Softening Stance Toward India?

Recent diplomatic overtures, including backchannel talks between Islamabad and New Delhi, suggest Pakistan’s interest in stabilizing ties with India—a move that contradicts China’s strategic calculus in South Asia.

China’s Strategic Response

China is now exploring alternative regional partnerships, potentially increasing economic and infrastructure cooperation with India to counterbalance the risk of Pakistan’s realignment. In a notable shift, China has expressed interest in joint infrastructure projects with India, signaling a willingness to engage with Delhi despite longstanding tensions.

For Pakistan, this represents a warning—China may diversify its regional investments and reduce its dependence on Islamabad, weakening Pakistan’s leverage in the relationship.

The Road Ahead: China’s Strategic Calculations

While China remains committed to its partnership with Pakistan, recent developments necessitate a reassessment of its approach. Several key trends are likely to shape the future of the relationship:

1. Stricter Economic Conditions: China will likely impose stricter financial terms on future CPEC investments, ensuring Pakistan meets repayment obligations before additional funds are allocated.

2. Selective Investment: Rather than large-scale infrastructure projects, China may prioritize strategic sectors such as mining, defense, and digital infrastructure, where risks can be better controlled.

3. Security Autonomy: If Pakistan fails to provide adequate protection to Chinese nationals, China may deploy its own security personnel, creating new diplomatic frictions.

4. Shifting Alliances: If Pakistan deepens its ties with the U.S., China may counterbalance by strengthening relations with India, Iran, or Central Asian states, reducing its strategic reliance on Pakistan.

A Critical Crossroads in China-Pakistan Relations

Pakistan’s recent foreign policy shifts, economic instability, and security failures have led to growing skepticism in Beijing. While China still views Pakistan as a valuable partner, its deteriorating economic credibility, inability to secure Chinese investments, and increasing engagement with the U.S. have raised serious concerns.

The future of the China-Pakistan relationship hinges on Islamabad’s ability to restore trust—through greater financial responsibility, stronger security measures, and a reaffirmed strategic commitment to China. If these assurances are not met, China may recalibrate its approach, diminishing Pakistan’s significance in its regional strategy.

For Pakistan, the stakes could not be higher. A cooling of ties with China could accelerate economic decline and deepen geopolitical isolation. The next few months will determine whether Pakistan can maintain its status as China’s trusted ally or if Beijing will begin looking elsewhere for regional partnerships.