Erdogan’s Chessboard
Türkiye's Strategic Moves in a Volatile Middle East
Türkiye finds itself at a pivotal moment, navigating a geopolitical landscape fraught with challenges and opportunities. With growing pressure from Western powers to destabilize its leadership and undermine its regional influence, Ankara has no choice but to engage in a sophisticated strategic game. President Erdogan, aware of the stakes, is maneuvering to secure Türkiye’s position while fending off external threats. Central to this strategy is the creation of a buffer zone in Syria and leveraging Türkiye’s control over the Bosphorus Strait under the Montreux Convention.
The West’s Challenge to Erdogan’s Leadership
Western powers have grown increasingly wary of Erdogan’s independent policies and Türkiye’s rise as a regional power. Ankara’s assertive foreign policy, from its involvement in Syria to its energy deals and alignment with non-Western actors, has disrupted Western interests in the region.
Western attempts to destabilize Erdogan often come in the form of economic pressure, political isolation, and support for groups opposing Turkish influence.
Türkiye’s geographic position, straddling Europe and Asia, makes it indispensable to both NATO and regional geopolitics. As such, Western powers are seeking to weaken Erdogan to regain leverage over Türkiye.
The Strategic Importance of the Syrian Buffer Zone
For Erdogan, creating a buffer zone in northern Syria is not just about countering the Kurdish groups Türkiye sees as a threat—it’s about safeguarding Türkiye’s stability and ensuring its regional influence.
A buffer zone prevents hostile forces, particularly Kurdish militants, from establishing a foothold near Türkiye’s borders.
Hosting millions of Syrian refugees has strained Türkiye’s economy and society. Establishing a controlled area in Syria offers an opportunity to resettle some refugees while maintaining influence over the region.
By securing territory in Syria, Türkiye reinforces its role as a key player in shaping the future of the Middle East, countering both Western designs and rival regional powers like Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Türkiye’s Leverage Over the Bosphorus and the Montreux Convention
The Montreux Convention of 1936 grants Türkiye control over the Bosphorus Strait, a vital waterway connecting the Black Sea to the Mediterranean. This position gives Türkiye immense strategic leverage over global trade and military operations.
The Bosphorus is a crucial route for oil and gas shipments from Russia and Central Asia. Türkiye’s control over the strait ensures it remains a key player in global energy security.
The convention restricts the passage of non-Black Sea naval forces during peacetime, limiting Western military access to the region. This has been particularly critical during the ongoing tensions between Russia and NATO.
By controlling the Bosphorus, Türkiye can assert its influence over any Western or regional attempt to isolate it, using this as a bargaining chip in negotiations.
A Sophisticated Chess Game
Türkiye’s current strategy reflects the complexity of its geopolitical challenges. Erdogan is playing a multi-dimensional game, balancing domestic stability, regional ambitions, and global pressures.
Erdogan is maintaining a careful balance between NATO commitments and partnerships with non-Western powers like Russia and China. This allows Türkiye to avoid over-reliance on any single bloc.
By creating a buffer zone in Syria, Erdogan is not only addressing Türkiye’s immediate security concerns but also positioning Ankara as a decisive force in the region’s future.
Despite Western economic pressure, Türkiye is leveraging its geographic position and strategic assets, such as the Bosphorus, to sustain its economy and secure its influence.
In sum, the challenges Türkiye faces are immense, but so are the opportunities. Erdogan’s ability to navigate this sophisticated chess game will determine not only his political survival but also Türkiye’s future as a regional power. By creating a buffer zone in Syria and leveraging the Montreux Convention, Türkiye is securing its interests while countering external attempts to destabilize its leadership. For Erdogan, every move must be calculated, every alliance carefully managed, and every opportunity seized, as Türkiye strives to assert itself in an increasingly volatile world.