Iran deal unsigned, Ukraine fights on, Ebola spreads: the week the world couldn't close any of its open wounds
From the Strait of Hormuz to the Congo, from Budapest to Galati, May 25 – June 1, 2026 in full.
The week ended as it began: with a ceasefire that nobody would enforce, a deal that nobody would sign, a pope who demanded that artificial intelligence be disarmed while the men with real weapons were counting uranium kilograms in hotel rooms in Muscat. On Saturday evening in Budapest a penalty shootout decided the Champions League. On Saturday morning in the Pacific a SOUTHCOM press release described the fourth US military strike on small boats that week, putting the total death toll since September at 205. These events were treated, in the official language, as belonging to entirely separate categories of the world’s business. They do not.
Iran: The Ceasefire That Both Sides Kept Violating
The week’s core story was also its most structurally dishonest. On Monday May 25, US Central Command announced “self-defense strikes” targeting Iranian missile launch sites and naval boats around the Strait of Hormuz. The context: a ceasefire, formally in effect since April, with ongoing negotiations for a permanent deal. Iran’s foreign ministry responded that the United States had committed “numerous maritime robberies” against Iranian commercial ships and had flagrantly violated the ceasefire in the Hormozgan region over the prior 28 hours. Each side was describing the other’s military operations as the violation that justified its own.
The escalation through the week had its own rhythm. On Tuesday, CENTCOM announced it had destroyed Iranian “radar and drone command and control sites” in Goruk and Qeshm Island, in response to Iranian actions including the shootdown of a US MQ-1 drone operating in international airspace. On Wednesday, Trump convened a Cabinet meeting that produced no announcement. On Thursday, May 28, NBC News reported that American and Iranian negotiators had agreed to the outline of a deal, covering language to lift constraints on Hormuz navigation, lift the US blockade on Iranian ports, and begin new nuclear talks. Trump reviewed the text. He declined to sign it, seeking tougher language on Iran’s nuclear commitments.
Also on Thursday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent threatened Oman directly, warning that Washington would “aggressively target any actors involved in facilitating tolls for the Strait.” Trump went further, telling reporters he would “blow up” Oman if it moved to control the waterway with Iran. These statements were made during a ceasefire, directed at the same country serving as a diplomatic host for the negotiations. A floating object thought to be a naval mine was sighted in the Strait on May 29 by Omani authorities. No group claimed it.
On Friday, Trump held a White House Situation Room meeting and said he would make a “final determination.” The session lasted two hours and produced no decision. By Saturday, Hegseth told an international defence forum in Singapore that the US military is ready to resume full combat operations in the Gulf and is “more strongly placed to do so than on day one.” The week closed with the deal outlined, not signed; the ceasefire violated daily by both sides; and a region continuing to absorb the consequences.
Lebanon deteriorated in parallel. On May 31, Netanyahu ordered the IDF to expand its ground operations in southern Lebanon following the seizure of Beaufort Castle, the 900-year-old crusader fortress that commands the high ground over both southern Lebanon and northern Israel. Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz confirmed the advance was made “at the direction” of Netanyahu. The IDF re-issued evacuation orders for thirteen villages south of the Zahrani River. Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam accused Israel of a “scorched-earth policy.” Germany’s Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul called the advance “cause for serious concern.” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed on May 31 that message exchanges with the US were continuing, but that “nothing is certain until a deal is finalised.” His government has insisted throughout that Lebanon must be covered by any agreement. Netanyahu’s government has insisted throughout that it will not accept that condition. The civilian population of southern Lebanon has no representative in either position.
The core nuclear arithmetic has not changed. Iran holds 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent purity, a short technical step from the 90 percent weapons-grade threshold. Trump has said he would not be comfortable with either Russia or China taking Iran’s enriched uranium, eliminating the two countries most likely to serve as an acceptable third-party recipient from Tehran’s perspective. Every week the deal is not signed is another week in which that stockpile, and its disposal, remains unresolved.
