Operation Northern Sentinel: A Hypothetical U.S. Invasion of Greenland Amid Escalating Tensions
Shift from economic diplomacy to the activation of military operations
As the world watches the Arctic thaw into a geopolitical hotspot, recent developments paint a picture of mounting confrontation. On January 19, 2026, NORAD announced the deployment of aircraft to Pituffik Space Base (formerly Thule Air Base) in Greenland, insisting it's a "routine" operation coordinated with Denmark. Yet, this comes hot on the heels of European NATO allies—Germany, Sweden, France, Norway, Finland, the Netherlands, and the UK—sending small reconnaissance teams and military advisors to the island for Operation Arctic Endurance, a joint exercise aimed at bolstering defenses. Greenland's Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen has gone further, urging residents to prepare for potential disruptions, including stocking five days' worth of food and essentials, while acknowledging a U.S. invasion as "unlikely but not impossible." These moves, fueled by President Donald J. Trump's repeated demands for "complete and total control" of Greenland—tied to national security and a Nobel snub—raise the specter of conflict between NATO allies. What follows is a hypothetical scenario exploring how a U.S. invasion might unfold, drawing on military doctrine and current capabilities to highlight the granular realities of such an operation. This isn't advocacy; it's a wake-up call to the inevitable clash if diplomacy fails.
OSINT readouts inform that the United States is finalizing a staggering $700 billion cash offer to buy Greenland outright from Denmark, plus $100,000 lump-sum payments to each of its 57,000 residents—totaling nearly $706 billion. This unprecedented package aims to sweeten the deal with direct economic incentives for Greenlanders while compensating Denmark for the loss of its Arctic territory and ongoing subsidies. Yet, should the Greenlandic government and Denmark flatly refuse—as they have repeatedly signaled through public statements rejecting any sale and urging residents to prepare for disruptions—the path forward darkens dramatically. Such a rebuff would leave U.S. planners with few palatable options short of coercion, accelerating the shift from economic diplomacy to the activation of contingency plans like Operation Northern Sentinel. With European advisors already on the ground and NORAD aircraft bolstering Pituffik, a rejected mega-offer could serve as the final diplomatic trigger, transforming financial overtures into the grim prelude to military action and forcing the U.S. to secure its Arctic interests through other means.
The Strategic Imperative: Why Greenland Matters
Greenland's vast ice-covered expanse isn't just a frozen frontier; it's a linchpin in great-power competition. With climate change opening new shipping lanes like the Northwest Passage and exposing rare-earth minerals critical for everything from EVs to missiles, the island's geo-strategic value skyrockets. The U.S. already operates Pituffik as a key node in its missile-warning network under the 1951 Defense Agreement with Denmark, but Trump's rhetoric frames full sovereignty as essential to counter Russian icebreaker dominance and Chinese mining investments. In this hypothetical, escalating tariffs on European allies (starting at 10% February 1, rising to 25% by June) fail to yield concessions, prompting the activation of a classified OPLAN (Operations Plan) codenamed Northern Sentinel. The goal: secure the island through rapid dominance, minimizing casualties while establishing de facto U.S. administration.
Mobilization and Deployment: Building the Invasion Force
The invasion would kick off with the activation of specialized U.S. Army units tailored for Arctic warfare. Leading the charge: the 11th Airborne Division, dubbed the "Arctic Angels," based out of Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson (JBER) in Alaska. This 10,000-strong force, reformed in 2022 for polar operations, specializes in air assault and cold-weather maneuvers—think paratroopers dropping from C-17 Globemaster IIIs onto snow-covered drop zones (DZs) to seize key objectives. Supporting them would be elements of the 10th Mountain Division from Fort Drum, New York, experts in light infantry tactics for rugged terrain, bringing ski-equipped patrols and avalanche-control teams.
Pivotal bases form the backbone: JBER serves as the primary staging area, with its runways handling heavy airlift from C-130 Hercules and C-17s ferrying troops, M777 howitzers, and HIMARS rocket systems. Eielson Air Force Base, also in Alaska, provides fighter escort from F-35 Lightning IIs for air superiority. On the East Coast, Naval Station Norfolk in Virginia dispatches amphibious assault ships like the USS America (LHA-6), loaded with Marine Expeditionary Units (MEUs) for coastal insertions—though Greenland's fjord-riddled shores limit large-scale beachheads, favoring helicopter-borne raids from MV-22 Ospreys.
Deployment dynamics unfold in phases
Phase Zero: Intelligence prep of the battlefield (IPB) ramps up, with MQ-9 Reaper drones from Thule conducting ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) over potential landing zones. Cyber teams from U.S. Cyber Command disrupt Danish comms nets to sow confusion.
Phase One: Airbridge establishment. Within 72 hours of go-order, strategic airlift from Air Mobility Command floods Pituffik with reinforcements, expanding the current 150-200 U.S. personnel to a brigade combat team (BCT) of 4,000. Sealift follows, with prepositioned ships from Military Sealift Command delivering bulk supplies like fuel bladders and Arctic tents, navigating ice-free summer routes but risking Russian submarine interdiction in the GIUK Gap (Greenland-Iceland-UK chokepoint).
Tactical Maneuvers: Securing the Island Step by Step
Once boots hit the ground, the operation shifts to tactical execution. Initial strikes target high-value targets (HVTs) like Danish Arctic Command HQ in Nuuk and radar sites in Kangerlussuaq, using precision-guided munitions from B-52 Stratofortresses to avoid civilian casualties—adhering to strict ROE (rules of engagement) emphasizing proportionality. Airborne rangers from the 11th's 1st Battalion, 501st Infantry Regiment, conduct heliborne assaults on airfields, securing them as forward operating bases (FOBs) with perimeter defenses of razor wire and M240 machine guns.
As control spreads, civil-military operations (CMO) kick in. Civil Affairs units from the 95th Civil Affairs Brigade set up humanitarian assistance/disaster relief (HA/DR) centers, providing centralized medical care via field hospitals stocked with MREs (Meals Ready to Eat) and trauma kits. For the 57,000 mostly Inuit residents scattered across remote settlements, this means temporary martial law: curfews enforced by military police (MPs) to prevent sabotage, with checkpoints using biometric scanners for ID verification. Provisions flow through air-dropped pallets—think Arctic-rated sleeping bags and propane heaters—to maintain goodwill, while PSYOP (psychological operations) teams broadcast messages via loudspeakers and leaflets: "This is a protective action for your security; cooperation ensures swift return to normalcy."
Resistance pockets emerge in urban areas like Nuuk, where Danish Sirius Patrol—elite dog-sled units—launch hit-and-run ambushes with sniper fire and IEDs (improvised explosive devices). U.S. forces counter with counterinsurgency (COIN) tactics: drone-swarm patrols for overwatch, and quick-reaction forces (QRFs) in MRAP vehicles to extract pinned-down squads. Logistical challenges abound—blizzards ground helos, forcing reliance on snowmobiles and tracked vehicles like the M113 armored personnel carrier.
European Resistance: From Advisors to Article 5 Showdown
Denmark's response translates to fierce but limited pushback. With only 200-300 troops on-island initially, reinforced by recent EU advisors (13 Germans, a French contingent, Swedish officers), they fortify key infrastructure like hydropower plants. Operation Arctic Endurance morphs into a defensive stand, with Norwegian F-35s providing air cover from Bodø and Finnish liaison officers coordinating guerrilla tactics.
Broader EU resistance escalates: France deploys naval assets to the North Atlantic, invoking hybrid warfare with cyber attacks on U.S. supply lines. If U.S. forces engage Danish troops, Article 5 triggers—NATO's collective defense clause—potentially pitting American units against allied reinforcements from Ramstein Air Base in Germany.
This loggerheads scenario fractures the alliance: Eastern European nations like Poland waver, prioritizing U.S. security guarantees against Russia, while Western powers rally behind Denmark. Protests erupt in Copenhagen, with EU sanctions slamming U.S. exports, turning economic blackmail into a two-way street.
Aftermath: A Fractured World Order
In this hypothetical, Northern Sentinel succeeds militarily within weeks—U.S. overwhelming firepower secures the island—but at catastrophic cost. Indigenous displacement sparks international condemnation, with the UN condemning violations of self-determination. Russia and China exploit the chaos, ramping up Arctic patrols to probe weaknesses. Domestically, bipartisan outrage in Congress, but his base hails it as bold leadership.
These events aren't fiction; they're the logical endpoint of current trajectories. As aircraft land at Pituffik and advisors fan out across Greenland, the line between preparation and provocation blurs. Readers, what say you? Is this inevitable, or can cooler heads prevail? Share your thoughts.
References
1. Task & Purpose: "NORAD stresses aircraft deployment to Greenland is 'routine'" (Jan 20, 2026).
2. The Hill: "NORAD: Aircraft will soon arrive in Greenland for 'long-planned' activities" (Jan 20, 2026).
3. CNBC: "Trump says EU won't 'push back too much' as Denmark sends extra troops to Greenland" (Jan 20, 2026).
4. NATO: "Secretary General hosts Denmark's Defence Minister and Greenland's Foreign Minister" (Jan 19, 2026).
5. BBC: "European military personnel arrive in Greenland" (Jan 20, 2026).
6. CNN: "European nations send additional troops to Greenland" (Jan 15, 2026).
7. Bloomberg: "Greenland PM Warns It Must Prepare Military Amid Trump's Threats" (Jan 20, 2026).
8. Wikipedia: "Greenland crisis" (updated Jan 20, 2026).
9. Various X Posts: Including @snap_alerts (Greenland PM urges preparation), @NetiNeti24 (PM Nielsen on invasion), @unusual_whales (preparation for invasion), @BRICSinfo (PM tells residents to prepare).