Pakistan and Afghanistan quagmire- Pakistan’s Kashmir blunder
Pakistan’s perceived shift away from its once-vocal stance on Kashmir has further emboldened India to expand its strategic reach and engage Pakistan in destabilizing conflicts. The issue of Kashmir, which has historically been a cornerstone of Pakistan’s foreign and security policy, now appears to have lost its central focus due to Pakistan’s internal weaknesses and shifting priorities. In this article I delve into factors how this dynamic has played out.
In August 2019, India revoked the special status of Jammu and Kashmir under Article 370 and 35 A, a move Pakistan vocally opposed but failed to counter effectively on the global stage. Despite initial outrage and diplomatic efforts, Pakistan’s lack of a sustained response was not only seen as a significant retreat but a complete defeat, and betrayal.
Pakistan’s economic crises, political instability, and growing isolation on the international stage have diverted attention from the Kashmir issue, reducing its leverage.
Pakistan’s attempts at backdoor diplomacy, including efforts for trade normalization with India, have been perceived as tacit acceptance of the new status quo in Kashmir, signaling a de-prioritization of the issue.
Pakistan’s inability to mount a robust challenge over Kashmir has emboldened India to:
• Strengthen its foothold in Jammu and Kashmir by increasing security measures, boosting economic development initiatives, and integrating the region more closely with the rest of India.
• Redirect focus towards Afghanistan, leveraging its growing influence there to counter Pakistan’s strategic depth policy.
• Promote regional integration projects like the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and Chabahar port in Iran to bypass Pakistan and minimize its regional importance.
India’s confidence has been reinforced by Pakistan’s internal vulnerabilities, which have made it easier for India to pressure Pakistan. Pakistan’s ongoing financial crises have left it reliant on international institutions and allies like China and the Gulf states, reducing its capacity to challenge India effectively.
Pakistan is grappling with internal insurgencies, such as the resurgence of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), ethnic separatism in Balochistan, and unrest in tribal areas.
Pakistan’s civil-military imbalance, with the military dominating foreign policy decisions, has led to inconsistent strategies that weaken its regional posture.
India’s engagement in Afghanistan and its growing regional partnerships have further entangled Pakistan in a web of conflicts.
India has allegedly supported separatist and insurgent movements within Pakistan, such as Baloch separatists, to keep Pakistan internally destabilized.
By strengthening ties with the Afghan government and certain Taliban factions, India has turned Afghanistan into a pressure point for Pakistan. Indian involvement in Afghan reconstruction and diplomacy undermines Pakistan’s strategic depth and exposes its vulnerabilities.
India’s growing partnerships with the U.S., Gulf states, and Central Asia have reduced Pakistan’s diplomatic leverage, especially in forums like the United Nations.
The combination of India’s strategic maneuvers and Pakistan’s internal weaknesses has created a scenario where “Kashmir Is a Secondary Issue.”The sidelining of Kashmir as a core issue has damaged Pakistan’s narrative and emboldened India to pursue broader regional goals.
With Pakistan losing influence in Afghanistan, India has the opportunity to contain Pakistan by supporting anti-Pakistan groups and fostering instability along the Durand Line.
As mentioned in previous article, Pakistan’s threats to occupy the Wakhan Corridor are indicative of desperation and highlight its inability to control the situation diplomatically or militarily. By abandoning Kashmir as its primary issue, Pakistan has spread itself too thin across multiple fronts, from Afghanistan to internal insurgencies. India’s growing partnerships with major global powers contrast sharply with Pakistan’s shrinking support base.
Pakistan’s economic struggles undermine its ability to sustain long-term conflicts or project power in the region.
Pakistan’s retreat on Kashmir has not only emboldened India but has also allowed it to exploit Pakistan’s vulnerabilities through strategic engagements in Afghanistan and beyond. This dynamic has left Pakistan entangled in chaos, with diminishing options to counter India’s growing influence in the region. If Pakistan continues on this trajectory, it risks further isolation, instability, and the erosion of its strategic position.
For Pakistan, it is time to re-focus on Kashmir and introspect on its Kashmir policy. It will be tough to convince Kashmiris but trying will not hurt. Peace in Karachi depends on how busy you keep India in Kashmir.