Pakistan’s Foreign Policy Crossroads: Navigating Between China and U.S. Influence

As Islamabad Struggles with Economic Dependencies and Strategic Pressure

Pakistan's foreign policy has long been characterized by a delicate balancing act between major global powers, notably the United States and China. Recent developments, however, suggest a subtle yet significant shift in Islamabad's approach, potentially indicating a greater susceptibility to U.S. influence, even as it publicly reaffirms its commitment to its "ironclad" friendship with Beijing.

Historical Context

The Sino-Pakistani relationship, often described as "higher than the Himalayas and deeper than the oceans," has been a cornerstone of Pakistan's foreign policy since the 1960s. This alliance has encompassed extensive economic, military, and strategic cooperation, with China investing heavily in Pakistan's infrastructure through initiatives like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship project of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Concurrently, Pakistan has maintained a complex and often tumultuous relationship with the United States. During the Cold War, Pakistan was a key ally of the U.S., but relations have experienced significant fluctuations, particularly concerning issues such as Pakistan's nuclear program and its stance on counter-terrorism. In recent years, U.S. concerns have increasingly focused on China's expanding influence in South Asia, with Pakistan's deepening ties to Beijing drawing particular scrutiny.

Recent Developments

In February 2025, Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari undertook a state visit to China, aiming to reinforce bilateral ties. Discussions with Chinese Premier Li Qiang centered on enhancing cooperation in various sectors, including trade, infrastructure, energy, and security. Both leaders emphasized the importance of advancing CPEC projects and ensuring the safety of Chinese personnel and investments in Pakistan.

Despite these affirmations, underlying tensions have become increasingly evident. Security concerns have been a significant point of contention, with China expressing apprehension over attacks targeting its nationals and projects in Pakistan. Incidents such as the attack in Karachi, which resulted in the deaths of two Chinese citizens, have heightened these concerns, leading Beijing to urge Islamabad to implement more robust security measures.

Economic Dependencies and Debt Dynamics

Pakistan's economic reliance on China has deepened over the past decade, with Chinese investments playing a pivotal role in the country's infrastructure development. However, this dependence has also led to significant debt obligations. As of November 2023, Pakistan's external debt to China stood at approximately $68.91 billion, accounting for 22% of its total external debt. This substantial financial burden has raised concerns about Pakistan's economic sovereignty and its ability to manage debt repayments.

The situation is further complicated by the economic challenges associated with Chinese-funded power projects in Pakistan. While these projects have enhanced the country's energy capacity, they have also led to increased financial strain due to high guaranteed returns to Chinese companies and under utilization of the generated power. Consequently, Pakistan faces mounting debt and financial obligations, prompting Islamabad to seek debt relief and renegotiate terms with Beijing.

U.S. Influence and Strategic Considerations

Amid these challenges, Pakistan's interactions with the United States have taken on renewed significance. The U.S. has consistently expressed concerns over China's growing influence in South Asia and the potential strategic implications of Chinese investments in Pakistan. In response, there is evidence to suggest that Pakistan is recalibrating its foreign policy to accommodate U.S. interests.

For instance, Pakistan has shown signs of aligning more closely with U.S. strategic objectives, particularly in the context of regional security and counter-terrorism efforts. This shift is partly driven by Islamabad's desire to diversify its international partnerships and reduce over reliance on China, especially in light of the economic and security challenges associated with CPEC projects.

Furthermore, the U.S. has leveraged its influence through financial institutions and aid mechanisms to encourage Pakistan to adopt policies that align with American strategic interests. The recent 90-day freeze on U.S. foreign aid, for example, has significant implications for countries like Pakistan, which rely on such assistance for various development projects. This move not only exerts economic pressure but also signals the U.S.'s willingness to use aid as a tool to influence Pakistan's foreign policy decisions.

Balancing Act and Future Trajectory

Pakistan's attempt to balance its relationships with both China and the United States reflects a pragmatic approach to navigating complex geopolitical dynamics. However, this balancing act is fraught with challenges. On one hand, China remains a crucial economic partner and strategic ally, offering substantial investments and support in international forums. On the other hand, the United States provides critical financial assistance and serves as a key player in global financial institutions that influence Pakistan's economic policies.

The evolving nature of U.S.-China rivalry places Pakistan in a precarious position. Islamabad's efforts to maintain neutrality and derive benefits from both relationships may become increasingly untenable as pressures mount from both sides. The challenge for Pakistan lies in managing these relationships without compromising its national interests or alienating either of the two major powers.

Conclusion

While Pakistan continues to publicly affirm its strong ties with China, recent actions suggest a nuanced shift in its foreign policy, potentially indicating a greater accommodation of U.S. interests. This shift is influenced by economic dependencies, security concerns, and the broader strategic competition between the United States and China. As Islamabad navigates this complex landscape, it must carefully balance its relationships to safeguard its sovereignty and promote its long-term national interests.