Red Sea Empires: How the UAE and Israel Are Dismantling Somalia for Strategic Control
A Portrait of Modern Imperialism: Economic Strangling, Military Encroachment, and the Collapse of International Law in the Horn of Africa
The people of Somalia are being sacrificed on the altar of two nations’ geopolitical ambitions. This is not diplomatic nuance or great power competition as usual. What the United Arab Emirates and Israel are orchestrating in the Horn of Africa represents something far more sinister: a calculated dismantling of a fragile nation, executed through economic coercion, military encroachment, and the shameless purchase of political legitimacy. And the ordinary Somali citizens caught in the crossfire will pay with their lives, their futures, and their country’s very existence.
For three decades, Somalia has struggled to rebuild after state collapse. That struggle has been brutally difficult, marked by famine, terrorism, and the grinding work of ordinary Somalis trying to construct functioning institutions from rubble. The progress has been real but fragile, the kind of progress that requires international respect for sovereignty and space to heal. Instead, what Somalia is getting from the UAE and Israel is predatory exploitation dressed up as investment and partnership. The dream of reconstruction is being deliberately interrupted by external actors pursuing ambitions that have nothing to do with Somali welfare and everything to do with strategic positioning in the Red Sea, military access points, and the profitable business of fragmenting nations.
In 2016, DP World, the Dubai-based port operator majority-owned by the Abu Dhabi government, made what appeared on the surface to be a straightforward commercial deal: invest $442 million to develop Somalia’s second-largest port. Thirty years of control. Automatic renewal for a decade more. It sounded like modernization, like Somalia finally getting the infrastructure it needed to participate in global trade. It was actually a trap. What the UAE understood, and what Somalia’s fragmented leadership either did not or chose to ignore, was that controlling a port means controlling leverage. Control a port for 30 years and you control the economic lifeline of a region. You control who gets rich and who gets left behind. You control which politicians survive and which ones fall. You control the future itself.
The port at Berbera became the centerpiece of something far larger: a 30-year commitment to making Somaliland viable as a separate entity. This was not accidental or secondary to some larger development agenda. This was the entire point. By pouring money into Berbera, by building roads and facilities and economic zones, the UAE was not helping Somalia. It was helping Somaliland become economically independent enough to seriously challenge Somalia’s territorial integrity. It was making separatism profitable. By 2025, the transformation is undeniable. Since DP World began operations in 2017, vessel productivity at Berbera has increased by 450 percent. Container volumes rose by 30 percent and general cargo throughput grew by 90 percent. The port now handles over 14 container vessels per month with an annual capacity of 500,000 TEUs, with expansion plans to quadruple this to 2 million TEUs. More than 4.1 million heads of livestock move through Berbera each year to global markets, a trade valued at over $1 billion. These are not small numbers. These are the numbers of a thriving port economy that did not exist a decade ago.
In October 2025, DP World launched a new strategic shipping route connecting Jebel Ali Port in Dubai with Berbera, operating every nine days. This is not just commerce. This is systematic integration of Somaliland into UAE logistics networks, creating structural dependencies that make separation from Somalia economically viable and politically sustainable. When DP World’s CEO for Horn of Africa operations, Supachai Wattanaveerachai, stated in June 2025 that “the vision of the Somaliland government and DP World is to make Berbera a regional marine trade and industrial hub,” he was speaking of something that is increasingly becoming reality. By 2035, the Port of Berbera will enable trade equivalent to about 27 percent of Somaliland’s gross domestic product and 8 percent of Ethiopia’s GDP. When you control trade worth that much, you control not just economics but politics, identity, and the future trajectory of a region.
Then came the military dimension, the part that reveals the true agenda. In 2017, the UAE built a military base at Berbera. Not a small facility. A serious air base with a 4-kilometer runway capable of handling fighter jets and armed drones. Underground hangars. Deep-water port access. When the international community objected, when Somalia’s government protested, the UAE simply redefined the base as “civilian” and carried on. Anyone who believes there is nothing military about those facilities is either naive or complicit in the deception. By 2025, open-source intelligence analysts documented approximately 12 underground hangars at Berbera Air Base. Twelve. These are not facilities designed for commercial aircraft or civilian operations. These are military installations built to specifications for combat aircraft storage. And they belong to a country that has no right to be operating military infrastructure on Somali territory without the federal government’s full consent and direct oversight. Somaliland is not an independent country. It is an occupied territory that the international community continues to pretend is something it is not, a territory whose separation from Somalia has become profitable and therefore politically convenient for powerful external actors.
The $3 billion railway linking Berbera to Ethiopia, the new shipping corridor from Dubai launched in October 2025, the Special Economic Zone, the constant expansion and upgrading of facilities: this is not generosity. This is strategic construction. This is the methodical building of infrastructure that makes Somaliland economically independent and therefore politically harder for Mogadishu to reintegrate. This is making separatism work by making it profitable. Somalia’s federal government has watched this unfold with increasingly futile protests. They have no leverage. They have no alternative. They cannot offer Somaliland what the UAE offers. So the separation deepens with every passing year and every new facility that opens in Berbera.
On December 26, 2025, Benjamin Netanyahu announced that Israel would formally recognize Somaliland as an independent state. Think about the cruelty of this moment. Somalia is fighting for its survival against al-Shabaab. Somalia’s government is fragmented, its people are traumatized, its institutions are barely functioning. Somalia is one of the most vulnerable countries on Earth. And this is when Israel chose to drive a knife directly into Somalia’s territorial integrity. The timing was not accidental. It was deliberately cruel. And it came after careful coordination with the UAE.
Israeli officials have been remarkably candid about what they want from Somaliland. According to Somali intelligence reports, Israel demanded three things in return for recognition: establishment of an Israeli diplomatic presence, development of an Israeli military installation along the Gulf of Aden coast, and Somaliland’s participation in the Abraham Accords. Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has stated publicly that Israel’s recognition was “primarily driven by three key considerations: Somaliland’s potential accession to the Abraham Accords; the relocation of Palestinians in Gaza; and most importantly the establishment of an Israeli military base along the Gulf of Aden.” These are not minor asks. These are fundamental demands that would transform Somaliland from a breakaway region into an Israeli strategic asset.
On January 1, 2026, Somaliland’s foreign ministry denied these allegations, calling them “false claims” and insisting its relationship with Israel is “strictly diplomatic.” But the denial rings hollow. Somaliland President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi, known as Cirro, is reportedly scheduled to visit Israel in early January 2026, possibly as soon as the second week, to formally align with the Abraham Accords according to Israeli state broadcaster Kan. This is not a purely diplomatic relationship. This is a strategic transaction. Somaliland is trading its endorsement of Israeli legitimacy and possibly accepting military installations in exchange for the international recognition that gives it the standing to pursue separation from Somalia. It is a Faustian bargain, and ordinary Somaliland citizens caught between competing loyalties will pay the price for their leadership’s capitulation.
This is what the Abraham Accords have become. Not peace. Not genuine cooperation based on mutual interests. But a framework through which Israel, the UAE, and other Gulf states can coordinate their military expansion, their proxy networks, and their reshaping of the global South to serve their interests. The Accords are a tool. Somalia is a victim. And the UAE’s role in all of this is not peripheral. It is central. As of January 2, 2026, the UAE quietly began accepting Somaliland passports on its official visa platform while simultaneously barring new tourist and work visas for Somali passport holders. De facto recognition without the political cost of an explicit statement. The UAE was not caught off guard by Israel’s move. The UAE facilitated it. According to an Axios report citing Israeli officials, the UAE directly facilitated Israel’s recognition of Somaliland. The UAE was conspicuously absent from a joint Arab-Islamic statement condemning Israel’s Somaliland recognition, setting it apart from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iran, Kuwait, Qatar, Turkey, and dozens of other nations that criticized the move.
This is what alliance with Israel means for the Middle East and Africa. It means subordinating your own foreign policy to Israeli strategic interests. It means becoming complicit in the dispossession of Palestinians. It means accepting military installations that bring conflict to your region. It means fragmenting your neighbors to create space for Israeli operations. And the UAE has chosen all of this voluntarily, with full awareness of the consequences. The UAE is not naive about what this partnership entails. It is cynical and calculating. The UAE wants the military access. The UAE wants the fragmented neighbor states that cannot push back. The UAE wants to be part of the Abraham Accords framework that allows it to coordinate military and intelligence operations across the Middle East and Africa without the constraints that would apply to a more isolated player.
On December 30, 2025, something remarkable happened across Somalia. Tens of thousands of people poured into the streets in the largest protests since Israel’s recognition. In Mogadishu, massive crowds gathered at the city’s main football stadium and near the airport. Protesters waved Somali flags and chanted unity slogans. In Baidoa, Hobyo, Xudur, Guriceel, Laascaanood, and across northeastern regions, Somalis demonstrated in numbers not seen in years. These were not small gatherings organized by political elites. These were mass mobilizations driven by ordinary citizens’ outrage at what had been done to their country. Religious scholars, elders, poets, students, ordinary citizens united in a common cause: rejection of external dismemberment of their nation.
Sheikh Ahmed Moalim, a religious leader in Guriceel, spoke for many when he said: “There is nothing we have in common with Israel. We say to the people of Somaliland, don’t bring them close to you.” In Mogadishu, traditional leader Mohamed Hassan Haad urged the Somali people to resist the recognition and warned against any encroachment on Somali territory. He called on people in Somaliland to reject this recognition. Religious scholar Mohamed Sheikh Abbari criticized Israel’s decision, calling it intolerable and asserting it was inappropriate to accept Israel’s presence in any part of Somalia, referencing Israel’s treatment of Palestinians and Muslims at Al-Aqsa Mosque. One protester in Baidoa, Adan Muhidin, told reporters: “We will never allow anyone to violate our sovereignty. This is a blatant violation of international law.”
These protests represented a rare moment of political solidarity across Somalia’s deeply fractured political landscape. Leaders from across the political spectrum condemned Israel’s action. The National Consultative Council, comprising the president, prime minister, federal state presidents, and regional governors, denounced the recognition as an “illegal step” that jeopardizes regional security. Notably absent from the condemnations were Puntland and Jubaland, two federal member states that recently declared withdrawal from Somalia’s federal system due to electoral and constitutional disagreements. Their silence speaks to how deeply Israel and the UAE’s intervention has fractured Somali politics, dividing even those united against external threats.
President Mohamud traveled to Turkey for emergency consultations with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, one of Somalia’s closest allies. Speaking in Istanbul on December 30, Mohamud expressed gratitude to regional and international bodies that opposed Israel’s recognition, warning it “creates a hazardous precedent that contradicts the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity” and could “foster conditions that might encourage violent extremist factions, exacerbating instability in Somalia and the Horn of Africa.” These are not abstract concerns voiced by diplomats performing their roles. This is a president watching his country being dismembered by external powers and crying out for help from anyone who will listen. The desperation in his voice is palpable, the recognition that despite leading his nation, he lacks the power to stop what is happening.
The Berbera complex is not an isolated case of UAE strategic overreach. It is part of a comprehensive model of proxy warfare through which the UAE has learned to destabilize entire regions while maintaining plausible deniability and protecting its international reputation. The clearest and most devastating example is Sudan, where the evidence is overwhelming and damning. In October 2025, following the Rapid Support Forces capture of El Fasher, the Sudan Doctors Network accused RSF fighters of collecting “hundreds of bodies” to burn or bury in mass graves to conceal evidence of massacres. Thousands of civilians were believed killed in that week alone. In December 2025, Amnesty International documented an RSF attack on Zamzam camp in North Darfur, where fighters killed dozens of civilians, raped women and girls, and looted humanitarian supplies. And the UAE has been central to making this horror possible.
Data from Sudan’s central bank shows that in the first half of 2025, the UAE imported nearly 90 percent of Sudan’s legal gold exports, totaling approximately 8.8 tonnes valued at close to $840 million. But this is just the legal trade. According to former Sudan Minerals Corporation head Nubarakol, smuggled gold likely exceeds official exports by four times. Both the Sudanese army and the RSF are implicated in smuggling, with most of it flowing to Dubai. In October 2025, The Sentry published a detailed report on the RSF’s business network in the UAE, documenting how Dubai-based companies linked to RSF financiers convert illegally mined Sudanese gold into cash through local trading and jewelry businesses. In January 2026, the U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned Al Zumoroud and Al Yaqoot Gold and Jewellers Trading, a UAE-based gold purchasing company that “has purchased gold from Sudan, presumably for the benefit of the RSF, and subsequently transported it to Dubai.”
The RSF sells gold from mines in territories under its control. Much of this gold is smuggled to Dubai, one of the world’s largest gold-trading hubs. The gold converts into hard currency that funds weapons purchases, pays soldiers, and keeps the RSF war machine running. The UAE’s entire gold trading infrastructure, its ports, its financial networks, are effectively laundering the proceeds of genocide. In October 2025, Sudan’s government imposed a de facto flight ban from Port Sudan to the UAE, severing the critical air corridor used for gold exports. The Sudanese pound lost nearly 40 percent of its value as legal gold exports plummeted. But the gold continues flowing through Egypt, which has become a major smuggling corridor, with most of it ultimately reaching the UAE anyway.
The UAE faces growing international backlash. Hashtags like #BoycottUAE and #BoycottDubai have trended on social media throughout 2025. Climate activist Greta Thunberg posted calls to shun travel to the Emirates. U.S. rapper Macklemore canceled a 2024 concert citing Emirati backing of the RSF. In May 2025, Amnesty International confirmed that Chinese-made guided bombs and howitzers were re-exported through the UAE to the RSF, stating: “The presence of recently manufactured Chinese bombs in North Darfur is a clear violation of the arms embargo by the UAE. The UAE must halt its arms transfers to the RSF immediately.” In December 2025, SWISSAID published a report showing the UAE imported 29 tonnes of gold directly from Sudan in 2024, up from 17 tonnes in 2023, along with 27 tonnes from Egypt, 18 tonnes from Chad, and 9 tonnes from Libya. The last two countries serve as exit points for RSF-controlled gold. Marc Ummel, SWISSAID’s head of Unit Raw Material, stated: “Given these numbers, the UAE should once again be placed on the Financial Action Task Force grey list.”
Multiple experts believe UAE support has been instrumental to the RSF’s transformation into a dominant war machine capable of sustaining its campaign across Sudan. The Raoul Wallenberg Centre for Human Rights has determined RSF atrocities constitute genocide against the Masalit non-Arab people of western Darfur. And the UAE is making this genocide possible. The same pattern repeated in Yemen, where the UAE initially joined the Saudi-led coalition but then began operating its own proxy networks, funding and training local militias, establishing secret detention facilities, and conducting targeted assassinations of Islamist leaders. Human rights organizations documented disappearances, torture, and extrajudicial killings. The UAE was not fighting terrorism. It was building a private empire of client militias that answered to Abu Dhabi rather than to any government or international law.
And now this model is coming to Somalia. The fragmentation of Somalia into competing power centers, the recognition of Somaliland, the military base construction: these are all pieces of the same puzzle. The UAE is not interested in Somalia’s stability. A stable, unified Somalia would be a sovereign state capable of negotiating with the UAE from a position of strength. The UAE prefers a fragmented Somalia where it can play different factions against each other, where it can operate military bases without serious opposition, where it can pursue its interests without meaningful constraints. This is the reality of UAE foreign policy. It does not promote development or peace. It promotes destabilization, fragmentation, and profit. And when that strategy leads to civil war, terrorism, genocide, or mass displacement, the UAE simply moves on to the next client state, the next port, the next military base.
Throughout 2025, al-Shabaab mounted a devastating comeback that has reversed years of counterterrorism progress. Since January 2025, al-Shabaab has re-entered large swaths of territory in central Somalia that Somali security forces captured during a major 2022 counterterrorism campaign. The group now controls a strategic triangle across Moqokori, Tardo, and Buq-Aqable in central Somalia, enabling it to encircle government positions and sever supply lines. In late February 2025, al-Shabaab launched coordinated attacks targeting Jowhar, Adan Yabal, and Adale in Middle Shabelle and Afgooye in Lower Shabelle, along with Bulo Burde and key areas east of the Shabelle river in Hiran. The offensive hit from multiple directions, stretching government forces and allied clan militias to the breaking point.
In April 2025, al-Shabaab recaptured Adan Yabaal, the strategic town that served as the group’s regional center of operations in Middle Shabelle before government forces captured it in December 2022. By mid-May 2025, al-Shabaab had managed to recapture most of the territory it lost in Middle Shabelle since 2022. In July 2025, al-Shabaab seized the towns of Moqokori, Tardo, and Sabiid and Anole, located roughly 40 kilometers southwest of Mogadishu. The takeover followed the abrupt withdrawal of African Union forces, primarily Ugandan troops, and Somali government forces. According to al-Shabaab media, 47 soldiers and Macawiisley militiamen were killed during the Moqokori assault, with 65 wounded. The group appears to be maneuvering toward encircling Mogadishu.
In March 2025, al-Shabaab attempted to assassinate President Mohamud with a major IED attack on his convoy in Mogadishu. By mid-March, the group had begun encircling the capital with incursions and checkpoints along major roads. Al-Shabaab has recaptured villages south of Mogadishu that are crucial for Somali forces to defend the capital from vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices. This is not just military setback. This is catastrophic reversal. The Somali government launched its counteroffensive in August 2022, supported by the United States and Turkey, which resulted in the recapture of more than 215 locations according to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project. Since then, al-Shabaab has not only regained much of the territory it had lost, but it has also expanded its recruitment efforts, sustained its financial strength as al-Qaeda’s wealthiest affiliate, and preserved access to weapons and ammunition.
The fragmentation of Somalia, the fight over Somaliland, the competing interests of Turkey, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and now Israel, has made it nearly impossible for Somali security forces to mount an effective counterterrorism campaign. Ongoing power struggles between the federal government and member states like Puntland and Jubaland have undermined coordination. Politicians are fighting each other for patronage from different foreign powers. Federal and regional authorities are at odds. There is no unified strategy. Al-Shabaab exploits every crack in the system. When al-Shabaab’s recruiters go to young Somali men, they do not just talk about Islamic ideology. They talk about foreign invasion. They talk about the UAE military base. They talk about the Israeli presence in Somaliland. They talk about their country being carved up by outsiders. These are powerful recruitment narratives. They are effective. And they are true.
Security analysts warn explicitly that the group will frame Israel’s involvement as foreign interference in Muslim land, a narrative that is “powerful and dangerous.” At the December 29, 2025 UN Security Council emergency meeting, Russia warned that “decisions akin to the one taken by the Israeli cabinet risk further complicating the efforts of Mogadishu and its partners’ efforts to combat al-Shabaab terrorists.” Russia understood what many others refuse to acknowledge: that this decision does not make Somalia safer. It makes Somalia less safe. It feeds the narratives that terrorist groups use to recruit. It undermines the government’s legitimacy. It turns foreign forces into something local populations can point to as evidence of the need for armed resistance.
On December 28, 2025, Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi issued a stark warning: any Israeli presence in Somaliland would be considered a “military target” for Houthi armed forces. He described recognition as “a hostile act” that “targets not only Somalia but also neighboring African countries, Yemen and all nations bordering the Red Sea.” He stated Israel aims to turn Somaliland into “a base for hostile activities against Somalia, other African countries, Yemen and the Arab world,” warning this poses a threat to Red Sea and Gulf of Aden security that “must be met with firm resistance.” This is not rhetorical posturing. The Houthis have demonstrated throughout 2025 that they possess both capability and willingness to disrupt maritime commerce.
Since October 2023, they have launched missiles and drones against over 100 vessels allegedly connected to Israel, the US, or UK. Shipping companies have been forced to reroute around Africa at enormous cost. The Houthis have extracted an estimated $180 million per month in protection fees from vessels transiting the Red Sea. Berbera sits directly opposite Yemen across the Red Sea, approximately 300 to 500 kilometers from Houthi-controlled areas including the port of Hodeidah. A forward operating base in Somaliland would provide Israel and its UAE partner with proximity to monitor Houthi activities, potential launch platforms for intelligence or military operations, and enhanced capability to secure shipping lanes. If Somaliland becomes a staging ground for Israeli or UAE operations against Yemen, the Houthis will intensify attacks, potentially creating a permanent zone of confrontation in waters carrying 12 percent of global trade.
The result will be expanded conflict affecting not just Somalia and Yemen but global maritime commerce, the economies of nations that depend on Red Sea shipping, and the lives of people with nothing to do with the geopolitical games being played. Even more alarming, documented evidence shows al-Shabaab and Houthis coordinating more closely. In February 2025, UN investigators reported that in 2024 the two groups progressed from communication to physical meetings and materiel transfers, with Houthis providing al-Shabaab weaponized drones, ballistic missiles, and specialized training. This collaboration could intensify significantly if Israel establishes military presence in Somaliland, potentially integrating maritime piracy with coordinated regional attack strategies. The convergence of these threats, the militarization of the Red Sea, the resurgence of al-Shabaab, the Houthi warning of military targeting, creates a scenario where Somalia becomes ground zero for a regional conflagration that serves absolutely no Somali interest.
On December 29, 2025, Somalia convened an emergency session of the UN Security Council. Somalia’s delegate, speaking on behalf of Algeria, Guyana, and Sierra Leone, condemned “the flagrant assault by Israel on the unity and territorial integrity of Somalia” through recognition of “so-called ‘Somaliland,’ which is legally incapable of entering into any agreement or arrangement with another country.” Nearly every country at that session condemned Israel’s action. The GCC Secretary-General warned it “represents a dangerous precedent that will undermine the foundations of stability in the Horn of Africa region and open the door to further tensions and conflicts.” China stated: “Somaliland is an integral part of Somali territory. China firmly supports Somalia’s sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity and opposes any act to split its territory.” Russia expressed deep concern. Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, and dozens of other nations issued strong statements. Over 50 countries worldwide condemned Israel’s recognition.
The international consensus was clear: this was wrong. And then nothing happened. No consequences. No sanctions. No real pressure. Israel faced some criticism, issued some statements, and carried on. The United States, which likes to present itself as the defender of international law, was notably absent from the condemnations. The US deputy envoy actually criticized the Council for even convening to discuss the matter. When confronted with the fact that Somaliland is not the same as Palestine, the US envoy had no meaningful response. The world’s most powerful country simply chose not to enforce the rules it claims to support. This is what the collapse of international order looks like in real time. It is not dramatic. It is not sudden. It is the gradual erosion of the principle that international law matters, that borders matter, that the sovereignty of weaker nations deserves respect. And it happens when powerful nations decide that enforcing the rules is less important than maintaining useful partnerships.
Somalia is experiencing this firsthand. A country that did nothing to deserve this punishment is being carved up by outside powers that want its geography, its ports, its vulnerability. And the international community watches and does nothing. President Mohamud warned during the UN session that Israel’s recognition was “not merely a diplomatic gesture but a facade for particular, high-stakes Israeli strategic aims.” He alleged that Israel intended to “export its Gaza issues” to the Horn of Africa, characterizing the recognition as opening “a Pandora’s box of evils in the world.” These are not the words of a leader engaged in diplomatic hyperbole. These are the words of a man watching his country being destroyed and begging the world to care.
In the weeks following Israel’s recognition, something significant happened. Somalia began recalibrating its regional relationships in ways that directly challenge UAE interests. On December 27, 2025, Somali President Mohamud announced plans to visit Saudi Arabia amid shifting alliances. Somalia has publicly backed Saudi Arabia’s call for the UAE to end what Riyadh described as “interference in Yemen’s sovereignty.” This represents a dramatic shift. Somalia is aligning with Saudi Arabia against the UAE at precisely the moment when Saudi-UAE tensions are entering an openly confrontational phase. Throughout December 2025, disputes between Saudi Arabia and the UAE over Yemen, Sudan, and Somalia have threatened to redraw regional alliances. Saudi Arabia joined scores of countries in condemning Israel’s recognition of Somaliland. The UAE’s name was conspicuously absent. The contrast could not be starker: Saudi Arabia is building political coalitions to preserve established state borders while the UAE backs paramilitary and secessionist groups.
Somalia has also drawn closer to Sudan’s military leadership at a time when the UAE is widely accused of backing the Rapid Support Forces. According to Somali analysts, “These are not random positions. They reflect growing frustration with Abu Dhabi, driven largely by the Somaliland issue.” For now, Somalia has not formally downgraded relations with the UAE. But Somali officials say patience is thinning, and Israel’s recognition of Somaliland has become a defining test of alliances in the region. A senior Somali diplomat stated: “There is a perception that the UAE is shaping events behind the scenes. Whether that perception is accurate or not, it is now influencing Somalia’s foreign policy.” The message is clear: Somalia sees the UAE as complicit in Israel’s assault on its sovereignty. And Somalia is choosing its allies accordingly.
Behind all of this policy analysis, behind the strategic calculations and the geopolitical maneuvering, are ordinary Somali people whose lives are being destroyed by forces entirely beyond their control. A mother in Mogadishu wondering if her son will survive the week in a city increasingly surrounded by al-Shabaab fighters. A fisherman in Berbera watching as foreign military bases transform his coastal home into a military outpost. A family in central Somalia watching their village fall back under terrorist control because the national army is too fragmented to mount an effective defense. These are not background casualties in a grand strategic game. These are people who have already endured civil war, famine, terrorism, and state collapse. People who have worked incredibly hard to rebuild their country over three decades. People who have made genuine progress despite impossible circumstances. And now, just when their country might be moving toward stability and recovery, outside powers are deliberately destabilizing it again.
The young people being recruited into al-Shabaab because the terrorist group’s narrative about foreign invasion is increasingly hard to refute. The families being displaced as conflict returns to regions they thought had finally stabilized. The children who will grow up in a country that has become a proxy battlefield for others’ ambitions. The traumatized Palestinian refugees who may soon be forced to settle in Somaliland with virtually no resources or support. These are the human faces of grand strategy. And they matter far more than any port concession or military installation or strategic partnership. Somalia did not have to be sacrificed to the UAE’s imperial ambitions and Israel’s regional expansion. The Horn of Africa did not have to become a battleground for proxy conflicts. But the choices have been made, by the UAE, by Israel, and by an international community too weak or too unwilling to enforce the rules that are supposed to protect vulnerable nations.
Now Somalia will pay the price. And so will its people. The tens of thousands who protested on December 30, 2025, understand this. They are watching their country being dismembered in real time. They are watching international law mean nothing when violated by wealthy, well-connected powers. They are watching their future stolen by nations that view Somalia not as a country of human beings but as a chess piece to be moved around a strategic board. The question is whether the rest of the world will watch too, or whether anyone with power will finally decide that Somalia’s sovereignty, and Somali lives, actually matter.