The Fall of Assad

A Turning Point for Syria and Russia

How the Collapse of a Fragile Alliance Reshapes Middle Eastern Power Dynamics and Challenges Moscow’s Global Strategy

The fall of Bashar al-Assad marks a turning point in the precarious relationship between Syria and Russia. For years, Assad depended on Vladimir Putin’s military and political support to maintain power amid a brutal civil war. However, his eventual collapse reveals the limitations and complications of this alliance.

For the Arab world, Assad’s ousting has provoked mixed reactions. While some see it as the end of an era marked by authoritarianism and bloodshed, others worry about the instability his departure may bring. In Russia, the fall of Assad is seen as a blow to Putin’s vision of Russia as a global power capable of shaping Middle Eastern geopolitics.

Putin’s intervention in Syria beginning in 2015 was pivotal in keeping Assad afloat. Russia’s airstrikes and military backing helped the Syrian regime regain critical territories and push back opposition forces. Yet, Assad’s resistance to political reforms and over-reliance on Iran strained Moscow’s patience. In the final months of his rule, Assad faced mounting domestic unrest and international isolation, leaving Russia unable to sustain his regime indefinitely.

For Russians, this development challenges the narrative of Moscow’s successful reassertion of global power. For Arabs, it underscores the fragile nature of alliances built on dependency. The fall of Assad leaves a vacuum, one that regional and global powers will scramble to fill, reshaping the Middle East in ways that are as uncertain as they are consequential.