The UAE’s Dirty Wars Are Falling Apart

From Sudan to Gaza, Abu Dhabi’s mercenary foreign policy is crumbling under the weight of its own ambition.

The United Arab Emirates, once a modest federation of desert emirates, has transformed into a formidable player on the global stage, wielding significant economic clout and political influence. Central to its ascent has been a foreign policy characterized by strategic alliances and assertive interventions, often aimed at expanding its regional footprint and safeguarding its economic interests. However, recent developments in Sudan and the broader Middle East suggest that the UAE's ambitious strategies are encountering formidable challenges, prompting a reevaluation of its role in these complex geopolitical landscapes.​

In Sudan, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary group with roots in the notorious Janjaweed militias implicated in Darfur's atrocities, have been central to the nation's recent turmoil. Under the leadership of General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, the RSF expanded its influence, controlling significant economic resources, notably gold mines, which became instrumental in financing its operations. The UAE identified the RSF as a pivotal ally, providing military support, including arms shipments and advanced military technology, to bolster the group's position within Sudan's power dynamics. This alliance was mutually beneficial: the RSF received the necessary resources to assert dominance, while the UAE secured a partner to protect its investments and extend its geopolitical reach. ​

However, this relationship faced scrutiny as allegations emerged regarding the RSF's involvement in human rights abuses. The UAE's support for a group implicated in such violations raised ethical questions and potential repercussions on the international stage. The situation escalated when Sudan filed a case at the United Nations' International Court of Justice, accusing the UAE of breaching the genocide convention by funding and arming the RSF, which allegedly committed atrocities against the Masalit people. The UAE dismissed these accusations as a publicity stunt, but the legal proceedings underscored the complexities and potential pitfalls of its foreign policy engagements. ​AP News

The UAE's involvement in Sudan is not an isolated case but part of a broader strategy that includes forging alliances with key regional players, notably Israel. The signing of the Abraham Accords in 2020 marked a significant shift in Middle Eastern diplomacy, with the UAE and Israel normalizing relations. This agreement was driven by mutual economic interests and a shared desire to counter regional adversaries. However, the escalation of conflict in Gaza presented a complex challenge. While officially advocating for peace, the UAE maintained its burgeoning economic ties with Israel, navigating a delicate balance between supporting Palestinian aspirations and solidifying its strategic partnership with Israel. ​

This approach highlighted the UAE’s strategic foreign policy, where economic interests and regional influence took precedence over ideological positions. The ongoing conflict in Gaza challenged this stance, attracting criticism and exposing the complexities of Middle Eastern geopolitics. Despite publicly opposing the Gaza war, the UAE’s trade with Israel increased by 11% between 2023 and 2024, raising concerns about its commitment to regional solidarity amid escalating tensions.

The recent recapture of the presidential palace in Khartoum by Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) marked a turning point in the country's civil war. This development signified a setback for the RSF and, by extension, the UAE's strategic interests in Sudan. The weakening of the RSF challenges the UAE's proxy strategy, raising questions about the efficacy of using non-state actors to project power. This setback may prompt the UAE to reassess its foreign policy approach, considering the risks associated with supporting groups implicated in internal conflicts and human rights violations. ​

The unfolding events in Sudan and Gaza suggest that the UAE's assertive foreign policy is encountering significant obstacles. The reliance on proxy forces like the RSF has exposed the UAE to reputational risks and geopolitical pushback. As regional dynamics evolve, the UAE faces the challenge of recalibrating its strategies to maintain its influence while mitigating the repercussions of its previous engagements. The international community's scrutiny of the UAE's actions, particularly concerning allegations of supporting groups involved in human rights abuses, may compel Abu Dhabi to adopt a more cautious and diplomatically nuanced approach in its foreign policy endeavors.​

The UAE's ambitious foreign policy, characterized by economic investments and strategic alliances, is at a crossroads. The setbacks in Sudan and the complexities arising from its normalization with Israel amid the Gaza conflict highlight the challenges of balancing economic ambitions with ethical considerations and regional stability. As the Middle East continues to transform, the UAE's ability to adapt its strategies will determine its role and influence in the evolving geopolitical landscape.

References:

1. UAE’s Support for RSF in Sudan

Direct Financial and Military Support:

• CNN Investigation (July 2023) — “Exclusive: How the UAE is funding a Sudanese militia accused of atrocities”
  Link: CNN Report
  Confirms UAE sent weapons and logistics via Chad to support the RSF.

• UN Panel of Experts Report (January 2024)
  Summary: Documents foreign arms supplies and support lines from UAE to RSF in violation of embargoes.
  Available through UN archives or cited by major news outlets (e.g., Al Jazeera, The Guardian).

• The Guardian (July 2023) – “UAE accused of funnelling arms to Sudan’s RSF via Chad”
  Link: Guardian Report

2. RSF's Control Over Gold, Human Rights Abuses

• Bloomberg (August 2023) – “How the RSF Finances Its Fight in Sudan”
  Link: Bloomberg
  Reveals RSF’s control over gold mines and illicit sales, with UAE as a primary buyer.

• Human Rights Watch (June 2023) – “Sudan: RSF Responsible for Mass Killings in West Darfur”
  Link: HRW Report

3. UAE’s Support for Israel in Gaza War (2023–2024)

• Middle East Eye (October 2023) – “Despite Gaza war, UAE-Israel trade remains strong”
  Link: MEE
  Shows UAE-Israel business and security ties remain intact despite Israel's war in Gaza.

• Reuters (Nov 2023) – “UAE continues security cooperation with Israel amid Gaza escalation”
  Details silent intelligence cooperation and denial of full rupture of ties.

• AP / Washington Post (Dec 2023) – Confirms UAE’s abstention from key UN votes against Israel, reflecting tacit support.
  Used to highlight diplomatic positioning aligned with Israel despite public condemnation of Gaza violence.

4. Abraham Accords and Sudan-Israel Normalization Plans

• Axios (2021 & 2023) – “Israel pushing Sudan toward normalization with UAE support”
  Link: Axios Report
  Confirms UAE’s backchannel involvement in getting Sudan to normalize ties with Israel via RSF and transitional leaders.

• Jerusalem Post (Oct 2023) – Reports on Israel’s efforts to finalize Sudan normalization despite war.
  Reveals how UAE-backed factions were more receptive than Sudanese military leadership.

5. UAE’s Broader Role in Regional Conflicts

• Carnegie Endowment (2020–2023) – Multiple reports on UAE’s “militia-first” foreign policy in Libya, Yemen, Sudan.
  Link: Carnegie
  Search: "UAE regional proxy warfare"

• Foreign Policy (2023) – “The UAE’s Shadow War in Africa”
  Details UAE's strategic deployment of mercenaries and paramilitary support to secure trade routes, ports, and influence.