The Unraveling of Pakistan
How the State Has Failed to Protect Its Provinces and Prioritize Security
In recent years, Pakistan has faced a growing sense of insecurity, particularly in its peripheral provinces. From Balochistan to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), the country’s military and government have struggled to maintain control, raising concerns about Pakistan's ability to protect its citizens and defend its sovereignty. The hijacking of the Jaffar Express train on March 11, 2025, is but one of many incidents that underscore this failure. The train, which was carrying hundreds of passengers, including military personnel, was taken over by insurgents from the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), who have long sought greater autonomy for Balochistan. The fact that so many of the hostages were military personnel is a stark reminder of the military's diminishing grip on security outside the Indus River Basin.
At the heart of this unraveling is a state that has arguably made a conscious decision to withdraw from the responsibility of securing Pakistan's peripheries. This decision is not simply a result of incompetence or oversight; it appears to be driven by foreign pressure, internal priorities, and the need to maintain a tight hold on the country's power center. The consequences are clear: the provinces outside of Punjab, particularly Balochistan and KP, are suffering from a deteriorating security situation, with civilian lives and national stability at stake.
A Country Divided
Pakistan’s state apparatus, dominated by the military, has long been viewed as the primary force ensuring the country’s security. But while the military has succeeded in maintaining a semblance of order in the heart of the country—particularly in Punjab, the region that houses the capital, Islamabad—it has faltered in the more remote areas, especially in Balochistan and KP.
These provinces, once integral parts of Pakistan’s unity, have increasingly come under the control of insurgent groups, criminal cartels, and militant organizations. In Balochistan, the BLA and other separatist groups have been waging a guerrilla war against the state for years, demanding greater autonomy and control over the region’s rich natural resources. The province’s strategic importance, given its proximity to Afghanistan and Iran, has only heightened the urgency of addressing its security crisis. Yet, the state’s response has been anything but decisive. Pakistan’s military, which has long maintained a heavy presence in the region, seems increasingly unable to address the growing threat from insurgents.
Similarly, KP, particularly its border areas with Afghanistan, has witnessed a surge in terrorist activity from groups like the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which has made inroads into the region despite the presence of military forces. The province's vulnerabilities have been exacerbated by the shifting dynamics in Afghanistan following the Taliban's resurgence. Rather than addressing these threats head-on, the government and military have failed to develop a coherent strategy for countering these insurgencies, leaving the people of KP vulnerable to violence and instability.
The Jaffar Express Hijacking: A Wake-Up Call
The hijacking of the Jaffar Express on March 11, 2025, by BLA militants serves as a tragic yet glaring example of the Pakistani state’s inability to protect its citizens in the peripheral regions. The train, which was traveling from Quetta to Peshawar, was ambushed by militants who derailed it using explosives, then took control of the train and held the passengers hostage. Reports indicate that the majority of the hostages were military personnel, further highlighting the level of control insurgents have over areas traditionally considered under the state’s purview.
While the Pakistani military and security forces launched a swift rescue operation, the fact that such an incident occurred in the first place speaks volumes about the state’s growing inability to maintain control in regions outside the Indus River Basin. The attack on the Jaffar Express is not an isolated incident; rather, it is part of a broader pattern of deteriorating security that reflects the Pakistani state's waning influence in its peripheral provinces.
In Balochistan, insurgent groups have been emboldened by the state’s inability to protect its citizens. Kidnappings, bombings, and violent clashes between the military and separatist groups have become increasingly common, with no sign of an effective countermeasure from the government or military. Similarly, in KP, the resurgence of the TTP has left the province in a constant state of unrest, with bombings and targeted killings a regular feature of life for ordinary citizens. The Jaffar Express hijacking is thus a microcosm of a larger security crisis in these provinces, where the state’s control is becoming increasingly tenuous.
Foreign Pressures and the Shifting Focus of the Military
The failure to protect Balochistan and KP also reflects broader strategic shifts in Pakistan's foreign policy. For years, Pakistan’s military has been heavily focused on maintaining its strategic interests in Afghanistan, as well as its relations with India. These external priorities have overshadowed the pressing needs of Pakistan’s own provinces, particularly those in the periphery. The military’s focus on securing the Afghanistan border and its ongoing involvement in the Kashmir conflict have diverted attention and resources away from the growing threats within Pakistan’s own borders.
In recent years, foreign pressure, particularly from the United States and regional powers, has further complicated Pakistan’s security landscape. The need to appease international partners has led to a reduced focus on internal security, particularly in areas where insurgent groups are most active. This shift in priorities has left Balochistan and KP vulnerable to destabilization, as the military and government have prioritized external engagements over the safety of their own citizens.
This focus on external priorities also speaks to the internal dynamics of the military, which remains Pakistan’s most powerful institution. The military’s central role in the country’s political landscape has led to a scenario in which the government is effectively sidelined, with military interests taking precedence. This situation has allowed the military to retain a monopoly over the nation’s security, but at the cost of failing to secure the provinces that are most vulnerable to insurgency and unrest.
The Political Elites and Their Failure to Address Provincial Discontent
Another critical factor contributing to the deteriorating security situation in Pakistan’s provinces is the failure of the political elite to address the grievances of marginalized communities. In Balochistan, the ongoing demand for greater autonomy and control over the region’s resources has been met with indifference from the central government. The region’s underdevelopment, combined with its history of political repression, has fueled a sense of alienation among the Baloch population, further exacerbating the insurgency. The government’s failure to engage meaningfully with Baloch leaders and address their concerns has allowed the insurgent groups to fill the vacuum and continue their campaign for independence.
Similarly, in KP, the political elite’s inability to address the growing security challenges in the region has left the province vulnerable to extremism and militancy. While there have been efforts to negotiate with the TTP and other insurgent groups, these attempts have been largely ineffective, and the province continues to suffer from the fallout of these failed negotiations. The lack of a coherent policy to address the root causes of extremism, including poverty, unemployment, and the lack of access to education, has only fueled the rise of militant groups in the region.
Conclusion: The Need for a Unified Response
The hijacking of the Jaffar Express is a sobering reminder of Pakistan’s deteriorating security situation, particularly in its peripheral provinces. The state’s failure to protect its citizens in Balochistan and KP is not just a consequence of military ineptitude; it reflects a broader strategic shift, driven by foreign pressures, internal priorities, and the centralization of power within the military. The military’s increasing control over Pakistan’s security apparatus has come at the expense of the provinces, which have been left to fend for themselves in the face of insurgency and violence.
To reverse this trend, Pakistan must adopt a more inclusive and comprehensive approach to security, one that addresses the root causes of unrest in its peripheral provinces and ensures that all citizens are equally protected, regardless of their geographic location. The government must engage meaningfully with Baloch and Pashtun leaders, address issues of economic marginalization, and invest in the development of the periphery. The military must also recognize the importance of a balanced approach to security, one that prioritizes internal stability as much as it does external strategic objectives.
The future of Pakistan depends on its ability to address these challenges head-on, with a clear commitment to safeguarding its citizens and ensuring that the periphery is not left behind. If Pakistan is to avoid further fragmentation and instability, it must make a concerted effort to rebuild trust, restore control, and offer a sense of security to all of its provinces. The failure to do so will only deepen the country’s divide, leaving it vulnerable to both internal and external threats.