Trump’s Return and Pakistan: A Nation Trapped in Geopolitical Apathy
Geopolitical Entrapment of Pakistan
As Donald Trump reclaims the White House, Pakistan finds itself in an increasingly precarious position. The prevailing assumption among certain circles in Islamabad, that Trump’s presidency could bring about a shift in U.S. policy favoring Pakistan, is not only misguided but also dangerously naïve. If anything, the trajectory of U.S.-Pakistan relations is set to deteriorate further, with Pakistan continuing to be sidelined, manipulated, and systematically weakened to serve broader strategic interests.
A Peripheral State in U.S. Foreign Policy
Under Trump’s previous administration, Pakistan was relegated to the status of a peripheral state, an afterthought in Washington’s broader South Asia strategy. His tenure saw the infamous "do more" approach resurface, with Pakistan blamed for harboring terrorist elements while India received diplomatic and strategic concessions. Military aid was cut, and the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) blacklisting threat loomed large as a coercive tool. Pakistan was treated less as an ally and more as a liability, a policy approach that is unlikely to change with Trump’s return.
For Trump, Pakistan remains not important enough to engage with but too significant to ignore. The U.S. does not see Pakistan as a partner, but rather as a problem to be managed. India, on the other hand, is actively courted as a regional counterweight to China. Trump’s ideological proximity to India’s hardline nationalist government under Modi further entrenches Washington’s anti-Pakistan bias. With the Indian lobby growing in influence within U.S. policy making circles—second only to the pro-Israel lobby—Pakistan will continue to be treated with strategic neglect, if not outright hostility.
The “Free Imran Khan” Farce
Trump’s administration will not actively intervene in Pakistan’s internal affairs to push for genuine democracy or human rights. The flurry of Western concern about "Free Imran Khan" on social media will serve only one purpose: to apply pressure on Pakistan’s ruling establishment, ensuring it remains weak, divided, and subservient. The U.S. does not actually want Imran Khan freed—rather, it wants his plight to remain an open wound, a lever of influence over Pakistan’s military and political elite.
Should Khan return to power, the U.S. will pivot immediately, resurrecting the "democracy and human rights" narrative not as a genuine commitment to these principles, but as a weapon to destabilize his government. Economic strangulation through the IMF, media vilification by U.S.-aligned outlets, and diplomatic isolation will all be deployed to ensure Khan’s rule is untenable. Washington will not tolerate a leader who seeks to establish an independent foreign policy that diverges from American interests.
A Nation Destined for Disintegration?
The longer Pakistan remains under its current political and military leadership, the greater the likelihood of national disintegration. The state’s institutions, most notably the military, are widely viewed as corrupt, illegitimate, and self-serving. The social fabric is deteriorating, with corruption, opportunism, and cowardice becoming the defining traits of Pakistan’s elite. If an external crisis—such as a regional war involving Iran or India—were to erupt, Pakistan’s fragmented leadership would struggle to maintain control.
Imran Khan’s significance lies in the fact that he remains the last political figure capable of uniting the country. If he is permanently sidelined, whether through political delegitimization, imprisonment, or assassination, Pakistan may find itself beyond the point of recovery. The U.S., India, and other geopolitical actors would prefer a weakened, balkanized Pakistan over a sovereign and assertive one. A Pakistan that is fractured is easier to manipulate, easier to coerce, and easier to keep out of the way of larger strategic plans.
Paul Kapur: The Architect of Pakistan’s Diplomatic Isolation?
S. Paul Kapur’s academic and policy credentials make him a formidable figure in shaping U.S. policy toward South Asia. His work has long argued that Pakistan’s nuclear posture and state policies contribute to regional instability. His 2023 essay with Harsh Pant reinforced a familiar theme—Pakistan is an unreliable actor, while the U.S.-India strategic partnership is the future. His collaborations with Sumit Ganguly, another well-known advocate for a strong India-U.S. alliance, further highlight his views.
Kapur and Ganguly’s five-point plan for strengthening the India-U.S. relationship is particularly revealing:
Building India's Military Capacity – U.S. support for India's defense sector to counter China.
Strategic Economic Initiatives – Including reshoring supply chains to India, further sidelining Pakistan.
Avoiding Ties with Pakistan – Explicitly stating that deepening U.S.-Pakistan ties would harm the U.S.-India relationship and benefit China.
Strengthening Diplomatic Coordination – Ensuring India and the U.S. stay aligned in global affairs.
Minimizing Moral Debates in Foreign Policy – Shifting from democracy/human rights rhetoric to pure strategic interests.
Kapur’s appointment represents an escalation in America’s strategic pivot away from Pakistan. Unlike previous officials who at least maintained a veneer of engagement with Islamabad, Kapur’s nomination indicates that Washington is now openly embracing a policy of diplomatic abandonment
The Only Path to Survival
For Khan, or any Pakistani leader truly committed to saving the nation—there can be no illusions about playing within the existing system. The current political order is irredeemable. A controlled, compromised leadership will continue to sell out national interests, making Pakistan increasingly dependent on external forces.
The only viable path forward would be to seize power decisively at the opportune moment and dismantle the entrenched elite structure. If Khan were to return to power and allow business as usual to continue, he would either be complicit or tragically naïve. The window for reform is closing rapidly, and failure to act decisively will seal Pakistan’s fate.
Conclusion: The Future Under Trump
Trump’s return to the White House will only reinforce Pakistan’s strategic irrelevance in Washington. The country will be kept on life support, pressured, blackmailed, and used as a pawn in larger geopolitical games. The real battle for Pakistan’s survival will not be decided in Washington, Delhi, or Beijing, but within Pakistan itself. The stakes have never been higher. If the status quo persists, then Pakistan is on an irreversible path toward disintegration. And this time, no external actor, neither China, nor the Muslim world, will step in to save it.
May Allah have mercy on Pakistan.