Trump’s Ukraine Gambit

Distracting Europe While Negotiating With Putin

As the war in Ukraine drags into its third year, President Donald Trump has taken a bold and controversial approach to securing a peace deal. While publicly engaging with European allies through his special envoy, retired General Keith Kellogg, Trump has simultaneously pursued a direct line of negotiation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, leaving European leaders blindsided. The result? A growing rift between the U.S. and its traditional allies, with a potential settlement that could see Russia retaining its occupied territories.

The Kellogg Distraction: A False Front for Europe?

Upon returning to the White House, Trump appointed General Kellogg as the special envoy for Ukraine and Russia. His mission: to manage diplomatic efforts with Ukraine and European allies while leveraging military and economic pressure on both Kyiv and Moscow. Kellogg, who has been involved in defense and national security since the early 2000s, was seen as a credible figure to engage in high-level discussions on ending the war.

Kellogg’s strategy revolved around conditional peace talks. If Ukraine refused negotiations, the U.S. would halt military aid; if Russia declined, the U.S. would increase support for Ukraine. This approach reassured European allies that the U.S. was committed to a structured peace process. However, in reality, it was only one part of Trump's larger geopolitical play.

Trump’s Real Plan: A Direct Deal With Putin

While Kellogg worked to keep Europe engaged, Trump was pursuing a different strategy entirely. Behind closed doors, his administration initiated back channel discussions with Russian officials. Businessman Steve Wyckoff, a longtime Trump ally, reportedly held informal talks with Moscow, laying the groundwork for a potential summit between Trump and Putin.

In a move that shocked European leaders, Trump made direct contact with Putin to discuss a peace settlement, without involving NATO allies or even Ukraine itself. Reports indicate that this potential deal would allow Russia to retain control over territories it has seized in Ukraine, a prospect that immediately alarmed European capitals.

Europe’s Shock and the UK's Dilemma

European Union officials, particularly in France and Germany, were left reeling after reports emerged of Trump’s direct negotiations with Putin. The UK, which has consistently backed Ukraine with military support, was also caught off guard. British officials warned that any deal brokered without Ukraine’s full participation would be viewed as an abandonment of Kyiv’s sovereignty.

To make matters worse, Trump’s administration also floated the idea of reducing the U.S. military presence in Europe as part of the negotiations, further straining relations with NATO allies. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s remark that “everything is on the table” only deepened European fears that the U.S. might make drastic concessions to Russia.

Ukraine’s Uncertain Future

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has remained firm in rejecting negotiations that do not involve Ukraine. However, the shifting dynamics of U.S. foreign policy under Trump have put Kyiv in a precarious position. If the U.S. withdraws support or pressures Ukraine into accepting a settlement, Zelenskyy may have little choice but to engage on Trump’s terms.

Conclusion: A Transactional Settlement in the Making?

Trump’s strategy appears to be a calculated maneuver to secure a transactional peace with Russia while minimizing European involvement. By using Kellogg to keep Europe occupied, he has created space to negotiate directly with Putin, prioritizing a deal that aligns with his administration’s goals rather than NATO’s collective stance.

The implications of this approach are significant. If successful, it could mark a major shift in the global balance of power, signaling a diminished role for Europe in security matters while reinforcing Trump’s vision of an America-first foreign policy. However, if the deal unravels, it risks deepening divisions among Western allies and emboldening Russia to push its territorial ambitions further.

As the world watches closely, Trump’s handling of the Ukraine war could define the next phase of U.S.-European relations—and reshape the geopolitical landscape for years to come.