Türkiye’s Looming Geopolitical Dilemma

Erdogan’s Tightrope Amid NATO’s Decline, Ukraine’s Fall, and Syrian Overreach

Türkiye’s geopolitical ambitions have long been defined by its strategic location, its ability to maneuver between global power centers, and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s assertive foreign policy. However, as 2025 unfolds, the very foundations of Türkiye’s strategy are being shaken by three converging crises: NATO’s diminishing influence, the fall of Ukraine, and Ankara’s overextension in Syria. Each of these factors poses a serious threat to Türkiye’s stability, leaving Erdogan with fewer options and mounting domestic and international challenges.

NATO’s Waning Power and Türkiye’s Vulnerability

For decades, Türkiye has leveraged its NATO membership as a strategic counterweight against Russia and Iran while maintaining a level of independence in regional conflicts. However, NATO is not the force it once was. Internal divisions over continued U.S. commitment to Europe, growing skepticism about NATO’s effectiveness in Eastern Europe, and shifting global priorities have weakened the alliance’s deterrence.

Following the collapse of Ukraine’s resistance in early 2025, NATO’s credibility took a serious hit. Russian forces, emboldened by their victories, have solidified control over key Ukrainian regions, leaving European states in disarray and questioning their next moves. This has left Türkiye more exposed to Russian power in the Black Sea region. With NATO unable or unwilling to mount an effective counterbalance, Ankara now faces an emboldened Moscow with greater leverage over energy supplies, trade routes, and military posturing in the Mediterranean.

The Fallout of Ukraine’s Defeat: Türkiye’s Strategic Setback

Ukraine’s downfall is a major blow to Türkiye’s regional ambitions. Since 2014, Türkiye has sought to build stronger defense ties with Kyiv, supplying advanced drones and military assistance to counter Russian aggression. The fall of Ukraine not only eliminates a key partner but also consolidates Russia’s influence in the Black Sea. This means Türkiye’s naval security is at risk, as Moscow now has fewer constraints in projecting power into the region.

Furthermore, the refugee crisis resulting from Ukraine’s collapse has added to Türkiye’s existing migration burden. With millions already displaced by conflicts in Syria, Afghanistan, and Africa, the additional influx of Ukrainian refugees is straining Ankara’s economic and social infrastructure. This presents another source of instability that Erdogan’s government must address amid rising domestic discontent.

Overextension in Syria: A Costly Gamble

Türkiye’s military involvement in Syria has been one of Erdogan’s boldest but riskiest endeavors. While Ankara has maintained a foothold in northern Syria to counter Kurdish militant groups and maintain a buffer zone, its position is becoming increasingly untenable. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, backed by Russia and Iran, has gradually regained ground, and Türkiye’s military presence is under constant threat.

Türkiye’s prolonged engagement in Syria is also becoming a financial and political liability. With economic pressures mounting at home, including high inflation, currency devaluation, and an energy crisis, Turkish citizens are growing weary of costly foreign interventions. The nationalist rhetoric that once fueled support for Turkish military incursions is losing its appeal as economic hardships take center stage.

Moreover, Türkiye’s strained relations with the United States and Europe over its Syria policy have made securing diplomatic support increasingly difficult. The West’s inconsistent stance on Syria, sometimes opposing Turkish military operations, other times relying on Türkiye to manage refugee flows, has left Ankara isolated in a conflict it cannot easily exit.

The Looming Trouble: Türkiye’s Options Are Shrinking

Erdogan now faces a reality in which Türkiye is more vulnerable than it has been in years. NATO’s declining power, the fall of Ukraine, and Türkiye’s overextension in Syria are converging into a geopolitical storm that threatens Ankara’s ambitions. Erdogan’s usual balancing act, playing the West against Russia while asserting regional dominance, is becoming increasingly difficult to sustain.

To navigate this crisis, Türkiye must reconsider its strategic alliances, reduce its military overreach, and focus on economic stabilization. However, Erdogan’s track record suggests he is unlikely to retreat easily. Instead, he may double down on nationalist rhetoric, seek alternative partnerships with China and the Gulf states, or take a more aggressive stance in regional conflicts to project strength.

Whatever path Erdogan chooses, Türkiye is entering a period of high-risk geopolitics with fewer safety nets than ever before. If Ankara does not adjust to these shifting dynamics, it could find itself in a precarious position, vulnerable to both internal instability and external pressures that could reshape its role in the region for years to come.