The Strait of Hormuz carried six ships this morning, down from 130 on any given day before February 28. The war is now sixty days old. The ceasefire that Trump announced three weeks ago has produced no agreement, no open waterway, and no end to Israeli strikes on Lebanon. What it has produced, effective May 1, is the UAE’s withdrawal from OPEC — the most significant rupture in the cartel’s unity since Qatar’s exit in 2019, executed at the precise moment when the war gives Abu Dhabi maximum cover and minimum market consequence. That calculation is the story of this day.
