US Grand Strategy
Controlling Eurasia: Post Cold War Strategy
The 2019 RAND Corporation report, Extending Russia: Competing from Advantageous Ground, reveals more than just tactical calculations against Moscow. It highlights a consistent thread in U.S. foreign policy since the 1990s: the dual objectives of securing Israel’s dominance in the Middle East and expanding American influence across Eurasia. Through this lens, the emphasis on destabilizing Russia via conflicts in Ukraine and Syria, while preparing for the next phase involving Iran, aligns with a broader strategy aimed at reordering the geopolitical landscape in favor of U.S. and allied interests.
Post-Cold War Policy Goals
The disintegration of the Soviet Union left the U.S. as the world’s sole superpower, and subsequent policy focused on preventing any resurgence of a rival capable of challenging this hegemony. Central to this strategy was:
Ensuring Israel’s regional supremacy by weakening potential adversaries and fostering instability around its borders.
Expanding NATO and U.S. influence eastward to encircle Russia and dominate Eurasia—a region historically critical for global power.
The RAND report’s strategies targeting Ukraine and Syria exemplify these goals. Each conflict serves as a theater to stretch Russian resources, undermine its global stature, and create conditions for regime change, ultimately removing Moscow as a counterbalance to U.S. and Israeli ambitions.
Ukraine: A Strategic Fortress in Eurasia
For the U.S., Ukraine is not just a geopolitical flashpoint but a cornerstone of its Eurasian strategy. By drawing Russia into a prolonged conflict in Ukraine, the U.S. has ensured that Moscow remains preoccupied with securing its own borders, limiting its ability to project power elsewhere. The RAND report emphasizes that deepening U.S. involvement—via lethal aid, intelligence sharing, and military training—forces Russia to invest heavily in sustaining its influence in Crimea and eastern Ukraine.
However, the significance of Ukraine extends beyond Russia. A destabilized Ukraine serves as a buffer between Russia and Europe, disrupting Moscow's trade and energy links while reinforcing NATO's presence in the region. This achieves two objectives:
Weakening Russia’s influence in its near-abroad, a vital region for its security and identity.
Ensuring that no Eurasian power can emerge to challenge U.S. dominance, consistent with the goals articulated in post-Cold War doctrines.
For Russia, losing Ukraine to Western influence would be a strategic catastrophe, making the region a critical pressure point for U.S. policymakers seeking to bleed Russian resources and erode Putin’s domestic legitimacy.
Syria: Undermining Moscow in the Middle East
In the Middle East, Syria represents a vital battleground in both Russian and U.S. strategies. Russia’s intervention in 2015 to prop up the Assad regime was a calculated move to secure its naval base at Tartus and assert its role as a key power broker in the region. However, the RAND report highlights how Syria has also become a quagmire for Moscow.
The U.S. strategy focuses on
Prolonging Russia’s involvement by supporting Syrian opposition forces and complicating Moscow’s military operations.
Turning Syria into a resource-draining conflict, undermining Russia’s global image and forcing domestic political fallout as economic conditions at home worsen.
Syria also intersects directly with the U.S. commitment to Israeli security. Weakening Russia’s position in Syria ensures that Israel retains unchallenged dominance over its northern borders, particularly in countering Iranian influence. This dual-purpose approach highlights how the U.S. uses Syria not only to stretch Russia but also to bolster Israel’s strategic position in the region.
Iran: The Next Frontier
The RAND report touches on Iran only briefly, but its inclusion signals the next stage in U.S. policy. The logic of stretching Russia through conflicts in Ukraine and Syria naturally extends to Iran. For the U.S., undermining Russian-Iranian ties and disrupting their cooperation in Syria represent opportunities to weaken both adversaries simultaneously.
Potential strategies involving Iran include:
Lifting sanctions on Iranian energy exports to drive down global oil prices, thereby weakening Russia’s oil-dependent economy.
Encouraging tensions between Russia and Iran to disrupt their alignment in Syria and beyond.
Targeting Iranian influence in the region, which would force Russia to commit additional resources to counterbalance U.S.-led efforts.
For Israel, Iran remains the primary regional threat. Any strategy that isolates Iran—whether by drawing Russia away from supporting Tehran or by destabilizing the region further—serves Israel’s long-term security objectives. The convergence of U.S. and Israeli interests in containing Iran ensures that this theater will play a critical role in the next phase of the strategy.
A Unified Strategy of Control
The RAND report’s focus on stretching Russia is not an isolated blueprint but part of a larger, long-standing U.S. strategy:
In the Middle East, ensuring Israeli security by dismantling regional adversaries like Syria, Iraq, and eventually Iran.
In Eurasia, preventing the rise of a cohesive bloc by destabilizing Russia and eroding its influence in neighboring states like Ukraine and Georgia.
The ultimate goal remains consistent: to secure U.S. dominance by neutralizing any rivals and ensuring the primacy of its allies, particularly Israel, in key regions.
The Risks of Overreach
While the strategy outlined in the RAND report is ambitious, it is not without significant risks. Pushing Russia too far in Ukraine could escalate into broader conflict, especially given Moscow’s nuclear arsenal. Similarly, prolonging the Syrian war risks destabilizing the region further, creating space for extremist groups to thrive and increasing tensions between U.S. and Russian forces.
Targeting Iran could also backfire. Iranian retaliation, whether through proxies or direct action, could destabilize U.S. allies in the Middle East, including Israel. Moreover, fragmenting Russia’s central authority could produce unintended consequences, such as empowering ultranationalist factions or triggering internal chaos in a nuclear-armed state.
Conclusion
The RAND report reflects a broader U.S. strategy aimed at reshaping global power dynamics in its favor. By focusing on Ukraine and Syria, and potentially expanding the scope to include Iran, the U.S. seeks to secure its dominance over Eurasia while ensuring Israel’s security in the Middle East. However, the high stakes of such a strategy underscore the risks of overreach, where the pursuit of regime change in Russia and the containment of its allies could destabilize not only the targeted states but the global order itself.
Reference
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3063.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com