Why I don’t believe Trump’s administration will make any difference in the context of Pakistan
A Developig Thread
This is a censored thread on X which is now available on here in its entirety. We will keep adding more details as we move closer to Trump’s inauguration day.
Imran Khan possesses atomic energy, and if released into the streets of Pakistan, he will bring the country to a standstill until the demands of the common citizens are met.
Which means the current regime will cease to exist, meaning, held accountable for its crimes against Pakistan.
Sure, Trump will have to engage Pakistan, and perhaps try to correct the wrongs done to the country by Biden’s administration. But it could be in the context of simply telling the current regime to find a negotiated settlement acceptable to all parties.
It is the first time in history that the Establishment has faced such stiff resistance from a single political leader backed by an overwhelming majority of Pakistanis. With that being said, there is way too much at stake to simply back off and let the common Pakistani take equal part in the governance of the country. Again, the Trump factor does not influence any of this.
China-containment policy will be pushed by Trump’s incoming administration. Sure, he might just prefer to work with Imran Khan in this context but the current regime can also offer support, perhaps unconditional support. This is something that is not tested yet but will become clearer once Trump is in office. Rest assured, China is No.1 priority. This can turn into a cluster fuck if mishandled.
The question on Afghanistan. Trump is now on record post RNC convention in 2024 that he regrets losing the presence in Afghanistan to contain China in the region. Which means he might want to regain access to Bagram base. In this context, Pakistan Army is already amassing troops along the Pak-Afghan border under the guise of fighting terrorism and protecting Pakistan. It could very well be used to appease Trump’s Afghanistan policy. TBD
Don’t get me wrong. Trump factor is definitely causing an upheaval within the current Pakistani regime because of the loud voices supporting the “Free Imran Khan” movement. But don’t underestimate the Generals. Pakistan’s military holds significant proxy value.
You know, the ammo and weapons factory in Taxila is highly active. The same factory that supplied ammo to the Ukrainians via the Americans. Although Trump wants to, but still unclear if he will actually manage to stop the war between Kiev and Moscow.
As an aside, Imran Khan has rightly said that Pakistan’s problems will be solved in Pakistan.
Trump’s China dilemma.
CPEC and BRI: Trump being a transactional negotiator, he will look at Pakistan through the lens of Pakistan’s deep ties with China. Based on his China containment policy, he might tell the Pakistani regime to reduce its reliance on Chinese investments. But, Trump will also have to offer something viable because Pakistan is heavily reliant on China.
Elon and Vivek are heavily invested into India. They could influence Trump to look at Pakistan through the lens of a balancing act between the two nuclear rivals. We know that the current regime is favourable to India whereas Imran Khan is the exact opposite. Again, a sensitive issue.
To counter China, Iran, and Russia, the Pakistani military can play a key role. Is America ready to accept a multipolar world? TBD.
According to Jeffrey Sachs, US and China are at odds, and who happens to be China’s closest ally in the region? Pakistan
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While the politicians work on creating space for their existence, while the army becomes more entrenched in the system, while the elites mint money, the common Pakistanis continues to suffer, and the poverty level hits an all time high.
Imran Khan is in fact not trying to be a god damn Khalifa. He wants to focus on Pakistan First policies which benefit the common citizens of the country. At the same time, he wants cordial relations with both the east and west. But, the problem is that the US is on a warpath against the emerging multipolarity where Pakistan gets crushed on the way. Which is why a strong leader like Imran Khan needed to help navigate these geopolitical challenges and keep the nation of 250 million safe and out of proxy wars
Just to put things into China’s perspective, Pakistan owes close to $30B, CPEC is a multi billionaire investment with the potential of returning 5x, and the country’s energy sector has significant obligations to Chinese companies. In short, China is more important than the US to Pakistan.
The inherently close relationship between Pak Military and the Pentagon plus C1A is unbreakable. The strategic relevance goes beyond political party lines and democratic values. Trump will he advised to maintain the same while pushing for a negotiated settlement between political parties.
I use the term “negotiated settlement” because that is what Pakistan is actually looking for. People aren’t ready for an outright revolution which would uproot the system and usher in a new setup. The reliance on Trump or rather discussions with Trump’s team are focused around a “negotiated settlement”. Because even if the Feb 8th mandate is returned, the PMLN/PPP run the bureaucracy whereas the military is safely entrenched into the system. Just like Trump is surrounded by the deep state, Pakistan is the same way.
Trump’s NSA pick Mike Waltz is not very approving of the Taliban government and in the same breadth distrustful of Pakistan Army leadership. He will play an important role in shaping Trump’s policy in the region. Historically, Pakistan’s military has pushed foreign policy and Trump’s administration might just be looking for a change to work with a civilian leader instead of a General. But that all depends how much of a priority is Pakistan during his 4 years given other major challenges.
UAE factor. A state which is inherently close to the US deep state. Who do they prefer to be in charge? A prosperous Pakistan is not beneficial, but a subservient one is.
The Taliban factor. In a marathon press conference yesterday, Pres. Donald Trump was unhappy with the mishandling of Afghanistan under the Biden administration where billions flowed to the Taliban. The big question, Trump will have to pick a reliable partner in Pakistan to deal with the Afghan government.
The interaction between Trump and Kabul will inevitably drag Pakistan into the mix. Link to X post
